Start Joe Burrow or Matthew Stafford? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Joe Burrow over Matthew Stafford in Week 1.

Matthew Stafford is priced by the books at 10.4 projected points and Joe Burrow is not priced at all, so we are leaning on where drafters take them. Drafters take Joe Burrow at ADP 57 and Matthew Stafford at 72.

What the books imply

No sportsbook posted a player market for Joe Burrow in Week 1.

Player prop markets imply 10.4 fantasy points for Matthew Stafford, with 45 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

Week 1 matchups

Joe Burrow and CIN host TB.

TB allowed 15.2 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 13th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 254 yards and a touchdown against TB, with an interception.

Matthew Stafford and LAR host SF on Thursday at 8:35 PM ET.

SF allowed 6.5 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 2nd fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 168 yards and no touchdowns against SF, with an interception.

By points allowed to the position, Joe Burrow has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Joe Burrow was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Matthew Stafford was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Joe Burrow played 8 games for CIN and scored 139.5 PPR points, 17.4 a game, finishing QB29.

He completed 173 of 259 passes for 1809 yards, 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and ran 14 times for 41 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 86 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Joe Burrow, Week 18 of 2025 against CLE: 29 of 39 passes for 236 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 17 yards, 22.1 PPR points.

Joe Burrow, Week 17 of 2025 against ARI: 64 of 77 snaps, 24 of 31 passes for 305 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 2 yards, 20.4 PPR points.

Joe Burrow, Week 16 of 2025 against MIA: 55 of 61 snaps, 25 of 32 passes for 309 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 6 yards, 29.0 PPR points.

In 2025, Matthew Stafford played 17 games for LAR and scored 358.4 PPR points, 21.1 a game, finishing QB3.

He completed 388 of 597 passes for 4707 yards, 46 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran 29 times for 1 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Matthew Stafford, Week 18 of 2025 against ARI: 25 of 40 passes for 259 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 3 yards, 26.7 PPR points.

Matthew Stafford, Week 17 of 2025 against ATL: 65 of 65 snaps, 22 of 38 passes for 269 yards, 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, 15.8 PPR points.

Matthew Stafford, Week 16 of 2025 against SEA: 92 of 92 snaps, 29 of 49 passes for 457 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 6 yards, 30.9 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Joe Burrow scored 15.2 PPR points and Matthew Stafford scored 5.1.

The call was right: Joe Burrow outscored Matthew Stafford by 10.1.

Joe Burrow, Week 1 against TB: 64 of 64 snaps, 25 of 35 passes for 254 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 5 carries for 20 yards, 15.2 PPR points.

Joe Burrow finished as the week's QB20 in PPR scoring.

Matthew Stafford finished 5.3 points below the 10.4 the props implied.

Matthew Stafford, Week 1 against SF: 51 of 61 snaps, 15 of 25 passes for 155 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for -1 yards, 5.1 PPR points.

Matthew Stafford finished as the week's QB32 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Dak Prescott over Joe Burrow.
• Start Joe Burrow over Drake Maye.
• Start Jalen Hurts over Joe Burrow.
• Start Matthew Stafford over Brock Purdy.
• Start Matthew Stafford over Caleb Williams.
• Start Dak Prescott over Matthew Stafford.