Start Tyrone Tracy Jr. or Justice Hill? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Tyrone Tracy Jr. over Justice Hill
Wrong: -0.6 to 3.8- Books imply
- 1.6
- fantasy pts
- DAL D vs RB
- 27.3
- 9th most to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 3%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 0%
- Week 1
- Scored
- -0.6
- PPR pts
- Books imply
- 1.2
- fantasy pts
- IND D vs RB
- 39.1
- 3rd most to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 46%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 4%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 3.8
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Tyrone Tracy Jr. over Justice Hill in Week 1.
De-vigged player props project Tyrone Tracy Jr. at 1.6 points and Justice Hill at 1.2, a gap of 0.4. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Drafters take Tyrone Tracy Jr. at ADP 192 and Justice Hill at 206. Market coverage on Tyrone Tracy Jr. is 33 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 1.7 fantasy points for Tyrone Tracy Jr., with 33 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.
Player prop markets imply 1.2 fantasy points for Justice Hill, with 33 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.
That puts Tyrone Tracy Jr. 0.4 points ahead of Justice Hill on the books.
Week 1 matchups
Tyrone Tracy Jr. and NYG host DAL on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.
DAL allowed 27.3 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 9th most in the league.
Running backs ran for 111 yards and a touchdown against DAL and caught passes for 22 more yards.
Justice Hill and BAL visit IND on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
IND allowed 39.1 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 3rd most in the league.
Running backs ran for 162 yards and 3 touchdowns against IND and caught passes for 29 more yards.
By points allowed to the position, Justice Hill has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Tyrone Tracy Jr. was listed as questionable when the call was made.
Justice Hill was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Tyrone Tracy Jr. played 15 games for NYG and scored 160.8 PPR points, 10.7 a game, finishing RB28.
He ran 176 times for 740 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 36 of 48 targets for 288 yards.
He was on the field for 54 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., Week 18 of 2025 against DAL: 18 carries for 103 yards, 9 targets and 8 catches for 56 yards, 1 touchdown, 27.9 PPR points.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., Week 17 of 2025 against LV: 42 of 64 snaps, 14 carries for 62 yards, 2 targets and 1 catch for -5 yards, 6.7 PPR points.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., Week 16 of 2025 against MIN: 35 of 56 snaps, 16 carries for 71 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 7 yards, 9.8 PPR points.
In 2025, Justice Hill played 10 games for BAL and scored 65.2 PPR points, 6.5 a game, finishing RB60.
He ran 18 times for 93 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 21 of 27 targets for 169 yards.
He was on the field for 37 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
How Week 1 went
Tyrone Tracy Jr. scored -0.6 PPR points and Justice Hill scored 3.8.
The call was wrong: Justice Hill outscored Tyrone Tracy Jr. by 4.4.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. finished 2.3 points below the 1.7 the props implied.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., Week 1 against DAL: 2 of 69 snaps, 2 carries for 14 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, -0.6 PPR points.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. finished as the week's RB78 in PPR scoring.
Justice Hill finished 2.6 points above the 1.2 the props implied.
Justice Hill, Week 1 against IND: 31 of 68 snaps, 6 carries for 18 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 10 yards, 3.8 PPR points.
Justice Hill finished as the week's RB51 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
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