Start Justice Hill or Braelon Allen? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Justice Hill over Braelon Allen
Wrong: 3.8 to 4.0- Books imply
- 1.1
- fantasy pts
- IND D vs RB
- 39.1
- 3rd most to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 46%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 4%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 3.8
- PPR pts
- TEN D vs RB
- 23.8
- 15th most to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 40%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 4%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 4.0
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Justice Hill over Braelon Allen in Week 1.
Justice Hill is priced by the books at 1.1 projected points. Braelon Allen has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Justice Hill at ADP 183 and Braelon Allen at 191. Market coverage on Justice Hill is 33 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 1.1 fantasy points for Justice Hill, with 33 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.
No sportsbook posted a player market for Braelon Allen in Week 1.
Week 1 matchups
Justice Hill and BAL visit IND on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
IND allowed 39.1 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 3rd most in the league.
Running backs ran for 162 yards and 3 touchdowns against IND and caught passes for 29 more yards.
Braelon Allen and NYJ visit TEN.
TEN allowed 23.8 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 15th most in the league.
Running backs ran for 142 yards and a touchdown against TEN and caught passes for 16 more yards.
By points allowed to the position, Justice Hill has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Justice Hill was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Braelon Allen was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Justice Hill played 10 games for BAL and scored 65.2 PPR points, 6.5 a game, finishing RB60.
He ran 18 times for 93 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 21 of 27 targets for 169 yards.
He was on the field for 37 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
In 2025, Braelon Allen played 4 games for NYJ and scored 15.3 PPR points, 3.8 a game, finishing RB100.
He ran 18 times for 76 yards and 1 touchdown, and caught 2 of 3 targets for 17 yards.
He was on the field for 24 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
How Week 1 went
Justice Hill scored 3.8 PPR points and Braelon Allen scored 4.0.
The call was wrong: Braelon Allen outscored Justice Hill by 0.2.
Justice Hill finished 2.7 points above the 1.1 the props implied.
Justice Hill, Week 1 against IND: 31 of 68 snaps, 6 carries for 18 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 10 yards, 3.8 PPR points.
Justice Hill finished as the week's RB51 in PPR scoring.
Braelon Allen, Week 1 against TEN: 27 of 67 snaps, 10 carries for 40 yards, 1 target and 0 catches for 0 yards, 4.0 PPR points.
Braelon Allen finished as the week's RB50 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
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