Start Keaton Mitchell or Tyrone Tracy Jr.? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Keaton Mitchell over Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Right: 0.9 to -0.6
- Books imply
- 2.0
- fantasy pts
- ARI D vs RB
- 9.2
- 3rd fewest to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 31%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 0%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 0.9
- PPR pts

- DAL D vs RB
- 27.3
- 9th most to RBs (2026)
- Scored
- -0.6
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Keaton Mitchell over Tyrone Tracy Jr. in Week 1.
Keaton Mitchell is priced by the books at 2.0 projected points. Tyrone Tracy Jr. has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Keaton Mitchell at ADP 190 and Tyrone Tracy Jr. at 192. Market coverage on Keaton Mitchell is 33 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 2.0 fantasy points for Keaton Mitchell, with 33 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.
No sportsbook posted a player market for Tyrone Tracy Jr. in Week 1.
Week 1 matchups
Keaton Mitchell and LAC host ARI on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.
ARI allowed 9.2 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 3rd fewest in the league.
Running backs ran for 52 yards and a touchdown against ARI and caught passes for 0 more yards.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. and NYG host DAL.
DAL allowed 27.3 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 9th most in the league.
Running backs ran for 111 yards and a touchdown against DAL and caught passes for 22 more yards.
By points allowed to the position, Tyrone Tracy Jr. has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Keaton Mitchell was listed as questionable when the call was made.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Keaton Mitchell played 13 games for BAL and scored 55.4 PPR points, 4.3 a game, finishing RB67.
He ran 59 times for 341 yards and 1 touchdown, and caught 9 of 12 targets for 63 yards.
He was on the field for 17 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Keaton Mitchell, Week 18 of 2025 against PIT: 2 carries for 2 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 0.2 PPR points.
Keaton Mitchell, Week 17 of 2025 against GB: 14 of 76 snaps, 9 carries for 31 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 7 yards, 5.8 PPR points.
Keaton Mitchell, Week 16 of 2025 against NE: 19 of 55 snaps, 9 carries for 13 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 1.3 PPR points.
In 2025, Tyrone Tracy Jr. played 15 games for NYG and scored 160.8 PPR points, 10.7 a game, finishing RB28.
He ran 176 times for 740 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 36 of 48 targets for 288 yards.
He was on the field for 54 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., Week 18 of 2025 against DAL: 18 carries for 103 yards, 9 targets and 8 catches for 56 yards, 1 touchdown, 27.9 PPR points.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., Week 17 of 2025 against LV: 42 of 64 snaps, 14 carries for 62 yards, 2 targets and 1 catch for -5 yards, 6.7 PPR points.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., Week 16 of 2025 against MIN: 35 of 56 snaps, 16 carries for 71 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 7 yards, 9.8 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
Keaton Mitchell scored 0.9 PPR points and Tyrone Tracy Jr. scored -0.6.
The call was right: Keaton Mitchell outscored Tyrone Tracy Jr. by 1.5.
Keaton Mitchell finished 1.1 points below the 2.0 the props implied.
Keaton Mitchell, Week 1 against ARI: 17 of 55 snaps, 4 carries for 9 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 0.9 PPR points.
Keaton Mitchell finished as the week's RB69 in PPR scoring.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., Week 1 against DAL: 2 of 69 snaps, 2 carries for 14 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, -0.6 PPR points.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. finished as the week's RB78 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
RB44 · LAC · bye 7
2025 vs anytime td line 1-12
- Overall rank
- 168
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 10
Ranked behind
RB48 · NYG · bye 8
2025 vs rush yds line 7-8
- Overall rank
- 178
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 10
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board10
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tiersboth in tier 10
- Board size244 draftable players
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