Start Keaton Mitchell or Brian Robinson? Week 1
Locked at kickoff. Graded after.
Start Keaton Mitchell over Brian Robinson
Wrong: 0.9 to 3.1
- Books implied
- 1.9
- pre-game
- ARI D vs RB
- 9.2
- 3rd fewest to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 31%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 0%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 0.9
- PPR pts
- PIT D vs RB
- 34.4
- 6th most to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 25%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 0%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 3.1
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Keaton Mitchell over Brian Robinson in Week 1.
Keaton Mitchell is priced by the books at 1.9 projected points. Brian Robinson has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Keaton Mitchell at ADP 182 and Brian Robinson at 191. Market coverage on Keaton Mitchell is 33 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 1.9 fantasy points for Keaton Mitchell, with 33 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.
No sportsbook posted a player market for Brian Robinson in Week 1.
Week 1 matchups
Keaton Mitchell and LAC host ARI on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.
ARI allowed 9.2 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 3rd fewest in the league.
Running backs ran for 52 yards and a touchdown against ARI and caught passes for 0 more yards.
Brian Robinson and ATL visit PIT.
PIT allowed 34.4 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 6th most in the league.
Running backs ran for 114 yards and no touchdowns against PIT and caught passes for 90 more yards.
By points allowed to the position, Brian Robinson has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Keaton Mitchell was listed as questionable when the call was made.
Brian Robinson was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Keaton Mitchell played 13 games for BAL and scored 55.4 PPR points, 4.3 a game, finishing RB67.
He ran 59 times for 341 yards and 1 touchdown, and caught 9 of 12 targets for 63 yards.
He was on the field for 17 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Keaton Mitchell, Week 18 of 2025 against PIT: 2 carries for 2 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 0.2 PPR points.
Keaton Mitchell, Week 17 of 2025 against GB: 14 of 76 snaps, 9 carries for 31 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 7 yards, 5.8 PPR points.
Keaton Mitchell, Week 16 of 2025 against NE: 19 of 55 snaps, 9 carries for 13 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 1.3 PPR points.
In 2025, Brian Robinson played 17 games for SF and scored 62.5 PPR points, 3.7 a game, finishing RB63.
He ran 92 times for 400 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 8 of 12 targets for 25 yards.
He was on the field for 17 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Brian Robinson, Week 18 of 2025 against SEA: 6 of 42 snaps, 2 carries for 9 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 0.9 PPR points.
Brian Robinson, Week 17 of 2025 against CHI: 11 of 72 snaps, 4 carries for 22 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 6 yards, 3.8 PPR points.
Brian Robinson, Week 16 of 2025 against IND: 10 of 66 snaps, 5 carries for 20 yards, 1 target and 0 catches for 0 yards, 2.0 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
Keaton Mitchell scored 0.9 PPR points and Brian Robinson scored 3.1.
The call was wrong: Brian Robinson outscored Keaton Mitchell by 2.2.
Keaton Mitchell finished 1.0 points below the 1.9 the props implied.
Keaton Mitchell, Week 1 against ARI: 17 of 55 snaps, 4 carries for 9 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 0.9 PPR points.
Keaton Mitchell finished as the week's RB69 in PPR scoring.
Brian Robinson, Week 1 against PIT: 15 of 60 snaps, 9 carries for 31 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 3.1 PPR points.
Brian Robinson finished as the week's RB55 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
RB42 · LAC · bye 7
2025 vs anytime td line 1-12
- Overall rank
- 142
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 9
Ranked behind
RB46 · ATL · bye 11
2025 vs rush yds line 7-10
- Overall rank
- 154
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 11
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. This call locked at kickoff and was not edited after. It is on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board12
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tierstier 9 and tier 11
- Board size242 draftable players
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