Start Malik Willis or Sam Darnold? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Sam Darnold over Malik Willis in Week 1.

De-vigged player props project Sam Darnold at 2.7 points and Malik Willis at 3.9, a gap of 1.2. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Drafters take Sam Darnold at ADP 155 and Malik Willis at 192. Market coverage on Sam Darnold is 45 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 2.7 fantasy points for Sam Darnold, with 45 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

Player prop markets imply 3.9 fantasy points for Malik Willis, with 40 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

That puts Malik Willis 1.2 points ahead of Sam Darnold on the books.

Week 1 matchups

Sam Darnold and SEA host NE on Wednesday at 8:20 PM ET.

NE allowed 13.3 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 10th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 200 yards and a touchdown against NE, with no interceptions.

Malik Willis and MIA visit LV on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

LV allowed 17.7 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 220 yards and no touchdowns against LV, with an interception.

By points allowed to the position, Malik Willis has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Sam Darnold was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Malik Willis was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Sam Darnold played 17 games for SEA and scored 249.4 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing QB13.

He completed 323 of 477 passes for 4048 yards, 25 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, and ran 35 times for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 96 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Sam Darnold, Week 18 of 2025 against SF: 69 of 69 snaps, 20 of 26 passes for 198 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 6 carries for 9 yards, 8.8 PPR points.

Sam Darnold, Week 17 of 2025 against CAR: 66 of 66 snaps, 18 of 27 passes for 147 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 3 carries for 2 yards, 7.1 PPR points.

Sam Darnold, Week 16 of 2025 against LAR: 68 of 68 snaps, 22 of 34 passes for 270 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 3 carries for 7 yards, 21.5 PPR points.

In 2025, Malik Willis played 4 games for GB and scored 51.2 PPR points, 12.8 a game, finishing QB45.

He completed 30 of 35 passes for 422 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, and ran 22 times for 123 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 10 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Malik Willis, Week 17 of 2025 against BAL: 39 of 47 snaps, 18 of 21 passes for 288 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 9 carries for 60 yards, 31.5 PPR points.

Malik Willis, Week 16 of 2025 against CHI: 46 of 72 snaps, 9 of 11 passes for 121 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 10 carries for 44 yards, 13.2 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Sam Darnold scored 0.5 PPR points and Malik Willis scored 17.7.

The call was wrong: Malik Willis outscored Sam Darnold by 17.2.

Sam Darnold finished 2.2 points below the 2.7 the props implied.

Sam Darnold, Week 1 against NE: 5 of 50 snaps, 1 of 2 passes for 13 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 0.5 PPR points.

Sam Darnold finished as the week's QB36 in PPR scoring.

Malik Willis finished 13.8 points above the 3.9 the props implied.

Malik Willis, Week 1 against LV: 56 of 56 snaps, 15 of 27 passes for 220 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 6 carries for 39 yards, 17.7 PPR points.

Malik Willis finished as the week's QB13 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Baker Mayfield over Sam Darnold.
• Start Sam Darnold over C.J. Stroud.
• Start Sam Darnold over Daniel Jones.
• Start Bryce Young over Malik Willis.
• Start Cam Ward over Malik Willis.
• Start Malik Willis over C.J. Stroud.