Start Matthew Stafford or Sam Darnold? Week 3

Our Week 3 call

Start Matthew Stafford over Sam Darnold in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project Matthew Stafford at 16.0 points and Sam Darnold at 15.5, a gap of 0.5. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 16.0 fantasy points for Matthew Stafford, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Matthew Stafford at 243.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 0.5 rushing yards, with a 4% chance to score a touchdown (13, 16, 8 and 15 books).

Player prop markets imply 15.5 fantasy points for Sam Darnold, with 70 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Sam Darnold at 222.5 passing yards, with a 11% chance to score a touchdown (4 and 7 books).

That puts Matthew Stafford 0.5 points ahead of Sam Darnold on the books.

Injury status

Matthew Stafford is not on the injury report.

Sam Darnold is listed as questionable.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 2, Matthew Stafford played 92 percent of LAR snaps, dropped back 57 times and threw an average of 10.2 air yards per attempt.

Matthew Stafford, Week 1 against SF: 51 of 61 snaps, 15 of 25 passes for 155 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 0 yards.

Matthew Stafford, Week 2 against NYG: 62 of 62 snaps, 22 of 30 passes for 327 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 2 yards.

Through Week 1, Sam Darnold played 10 percent of SEA snaps, dropped back 3 times and threw an average of 7.5 air yards per attempt.

Sam Darnold, Week 1 against NE: 5 of 50 snaps, 1 of 2 passes for 13 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Matthew Stafford played 17 games for LAR and scored 358.4 PPR points, 21.1 a game, finishing QB3.

He completed 388 of 597 passes for 4707 yards, 46 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran 29 times for 1 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Matthew Stafford, Week 18 of 2025 against ARI: 25 of 40 passes for 259 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 3 yards, 26.7 PPR points.

In 2025, Sam Darnold played 17 games for SEA and scored 249.4 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing QB13.

He completed 323 of 477 passes for 4048 yards, 25 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, and ran 35 times for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 96 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Sam Darnold, Week 18 of 2025 against SF: 69 of 69 snaps, 20 of 26 passes for 198 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 6 carries for 9 yards, 8.8 PPR points.

Sam Darnold, Week 17 of 2025 against CAR: 66 of 66 snaps, 18 of 27 passes for 147 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 3 carries for 2 yards, 7.1 PPR points.

Their other Week 3 calls

• Start Matthew Stafford over Aaron Rodgers.
• Start Baker Mayfield over Matthew Stafford.
• Start Bo Nix over Matthew Stafford.
• Start Sam Darnold over Aaron Rodgers.
• Start Sam Darnold over Bryce Young.
• Start Sam Darnold over Cam Ward.