Chet Holmgren vs Trey Murphy: who to draft in 2026-27
Draft Trey Murphy in both formats: 37.8 fantasy points a game to 36.3 in points leagues, and 11th against 18th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 box scores, not ADP.
- Points leagues
- #43
- 36.3 FP/G, slot 4.07, $20
- 9-cat leagues
- #18
- +3.1 z, slot 2.06, $32
Game-time decision (Quadriceps)
- Points leagues
- #41
- 37.8 FP/G, slot 4.05, $23
- 9-cat leagues
- #11
- +3.8 z, slot 1.11, $36
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: draft Trey Murphy. 37.8 fantasy points per game against 36.3, 41st on our board to 43rd.
9-cat leagues: Trey Murphy again, +3.8 in summed z-scores against +3.1 (11th to 18th).
Category by category, Chet Holmgren is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and Trey Murphy in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Chet Holmgren produces more: 45.2 fantasy points to 38.4, on 28.9 minutes a night against 35.5. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Chet Holmgren plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Trey Murphy 3. For that week alone, start Trey Murphy: 113.5 projected fantasy points to 109.0 for Chet Holmgren.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Chet Holmgren | Trey Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 36.3 | 37.8 |
| Minutes | 28.9 | 35.5 |
| PointsPTS | 17.1 | 21.5 |
| ReboundsREB | 8.9 | 5.7 |
| AssistsAST | 1.7 | 3.8 |
| StealsSTL | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| Threes3PM | 1.3 | 3.2 |
| Field goal %FG% | 55.7% | 47.0% |
| Free throw %FT% | 79.2% | 88.6% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 69 | 66 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Chet Holmgren | Trey Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 45.2 | 38.4 |
| Points | 21.3 | 21.8 |
| Rebounds | 11.1 | 5.8 |
| Assists | 2.1 | 3.8 |
| Steals | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Blocks | 2.4 | 0.4 |
| Threes | 1.6 | 3.3 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 1.8 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Chet Holmgren | Trey Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +0.1 | +0.8 |
| ReboundsREB | +1.4 | -0.1 |
| AssistsAST | -1.0 | +0.1 |
| StealsSTL | -1.1 | +1.4 |
| BlocksBLK | +2.5 | -0.7 |
| Threes3PM | -0.4 | +1.6 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +1.3 | -0.4 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.1 | +1.0 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.4 | +0.1 |
| Total | +3.1 | +3.8 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, assists, steals, threes and free throw percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Chet Holmgren.
| Punt | Chet Holmgren | Trey Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +2.9 (#9) | +2.8 (#10) |
| REB | +1.5 (#32) | +3.9 (#10) |
| AST | +4.1 (#7) | +3.6 (#8) |
| STL | +4.1 (#9) | +2.4 (#20) |
| BLK | +0.4 (#54) | +4.5 (#10) |
| 3PM | +3.4 (#12) | +1.9 (#24) |
| FG% | +1.6 (#34) | +4.6 (#10) |
| FT% | +3.2 (#13) | +2.6 (#18) |
| TO | +2.5 (#27) | +3.8 (#18) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 406 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Chet Holmgren: 3 games (Tue @SAS, Thu DEN, Sun LAC), listed GTD.
- Trey Murphy: 3 games (Wed IND, Fri @UTA, Sat @DEN), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Chet Holmgren: 35.1 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 36.3 on the board.
- Trey Murphy: 35.7 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 37.8 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Common questions
Should I draft Chet Holmgren or Trey Murphy in 2026-27?
Points leagues: draft Trey Murphy. 37.8 fantasy points per game against 36.3, 41st on our board to 43rd. 9-cat leagues: Trey Murphy again, +3.8 in summed z-scores against +3.1 (11th to 18th).
Who wins more categories, Chet Holmgren or Trey Murphy?
Category by category, Chet Holmgren is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and Trey Murphy in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Chet Holmgren or Trey Murphy?
Chet Holmgren plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Trey Murphy 3. For that week alone, start Trey Murphy: 113.5 projected fantasy points to 109.0 for Chet Holmgren.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 13, 2026 at 5:20 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number