Start Geno Smith or Aaron Rodgers? Week 3

Our Week 3 call

Start Geno Smith over Aaron Rodgers in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project Geno Smith at 16.8 points and Aaron Rodgers at 16.3, a gap of 0.5. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 16.8 fantasy points for Geno Smith, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Geno Smith at 222.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns, with a 11% chance to score a touchdown (13, 16 and 14 books).

Player prop markets imply 16.3 fantasy points for Aaron Rodgers, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Aaron Rodgers at 220.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns, with a 6% chance to score a touchdown (16, 16 and 15 books).

That puts Geno Smith 0.5 points ahead of Aaron Rodgers on the books.

Injury status

Geno Smith is not on the injury report.

Aaron Rodgers is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 2, Geno Smith played 100 percent of NYJ snaps, dropped back 74 times and threw an average of 6.6 air yards per attempt.

Geno Smith, Week 1 against TEN: 67 of 67 snaps, 19 of 24 passes for 215 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 10 yards.

Geno Smith, Week 2 against GB: 74 of 74 snaps, 27 of 40 passes for 247 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 5 carries for 17 yards.

Through Week 2, Aaron Rodgers played 98 percent of PIT snaps, dropped back 86 times and threw an average of 7.8 air yards per attempt.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 1 against ATL: 67 of 67 snaps, 24 of 40 passes for 221 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 2 against NE: 67 of 70 snaps, 23 of 39 passes for 187 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 5 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Geno Smith played 15 games for LV and scored 190.9 PPR points, 12.7 a game, finishing QB23.

He completed 302 of 448 passes for 3025 yards, 19 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, and ran 41 times for 109 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Geno Smith, Week 17 of 2025 against NYG: 53 of 59 snaps, 20 of 28 passes for 176 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 1 carry for 1 yards, 9.1 PPR points.

In 2025, Aaron Rodgers played 16 games for PIT and scored 234.1 PPR points, 14.6 a game, finishing QB18.

He completed 327 of 498 passes for 3322 yards, 24 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and ran 21 times for 61 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 95 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 18 of 2025 against BAL: 31 of 47 passes for 294 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 20 yards, 17.8 PPR points.

Their other Week 3 calls

• Start Baker Mayfield over Geno Smith.
• Start Bo Nix over Geno Smith.
• Start Geno Smith over Cam Ward.
• Start Baker Mayfield over Aaron Rodgers.
• Start Bo Nix over Aaron Rodgers.
• Start Aaron Rodgers over Cam Ward.