Start Baker Mayfield or Geno Smith? Week 3

Our Week 3 call

Start Baker Mayfield over Geno Smith in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project Baker Mayfield at 16.8 points and Geno Smith at 16.3, a gap of 0.4. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 16.8 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Baker Mayfield at 216.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 16.5 rushing yards, with a 13% chance to score a touchdown (14, 17, 12 and 15 books).

Player prop markets imply 16.3 fantasy points for Geno Smith, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Geno Smith at 224.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns, with a 11% chance to score a touchdown (15, 17 and 15 books).

That puts Baker Mayfield 0.4 points ahead of Geno Smith on the books.

Injury status

Baker Mayfield is not on the injury report.

Geno Smith is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 2, Baker Mayfield played 100 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 76 times and threw an average of 9.1 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Through Week 2, Geno Smith played 100 percent of NYJ snaps, dropped back 74 times and threw an average of 6.6 air yards per attempt.

Geno Smith, Week 1 against TEN: 67 of 67 snaps, 19 of 24 passes for 215 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 10 yards.

Geno Smith, Week 2 against GB: 74 of 74 snaps, 27 of 40 passes for 247 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 5 carries for 17 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Baker Mayfield, Week 18 of 2025 against CAR: 67 of 67 snaps, 16 of 22 passes for 203 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 31 yards, 14.2 PPR points.

In 2025, Geno Smith played 15 games for LV and scored 190.9 PPR points, 12.7 a game, finishing QB23.

He completed 302 of 448 passes for 3025 yards, 19 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, and ran 41 times for 109 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Geno Smith, Week 17 of 2025 against NYG: 53 of 59 snaps, 20 of 28 passes for 176 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 1 carry for 1 yards, 9.1 PPR points.

Their other Week 3 calls

• Start Baker Mayfield over Aaron Rodgers.
• Start Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Baker Mayfield over Cam Ward.
• Start Geno Smith over Aaron Rodgers.
• Start Bo Nix over Geno Smith.
• Start Geno Smith over Cam Ward.