Start Bo Nix or Geno Smith? Week 3

Our Week 3 call

Start Bo Nix over Geno Smith in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project Bo Nix at 16.9 points and Geno Smith at 16.3, a gap of 0.5. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 16.9 fantasy points for Bo Nix, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Bo Nix at 211.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 16.5 rushing yards, with a 17% chance to score a touchdown (14, 16, 14 and 15 books).

Player prop markets imply 16.3 fantasy points for Geno Smith, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Geno Smith at 224.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns, with a 11% chance to score a touchdown (15, 17 and 15 books).

That puts Bo Nix 0.5 points ahead of Geno Smith on the books.

Injury status

Bo Nix is not on the injury report.

Geno Smith is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 2, Bo Nix played 100 percent of DEN snaps, dropped back 64 times and threw an average of 6.1 air yards per attempt.

Bo Nix, Week 1 against KC: 51 of 51 snaps, 17 of 28 passes for 131 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 3 yards.

Bo Nix, Week 2 against JAX: 62 of 62 snaps, 22 of 31 passes for 288 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 9 yards.

Through Week 2, Geno Smith played 100 percent of NYJ snaps, dropped back 74 times and threw an average of 6.6 air yards per attempt.

Geno Smith, Week 1 against TEN: 67 of 67 snaps, 19 of 24 passes for 215 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 10 yards.

Geno Smith, Week 2 against GB: 74 of 74 snaps, 27 of 40 passes for 247 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 5 carries for 17 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Bo Nix played 17 games for DEN and scored 315.8 PPR points, 18.6 a game, finishing QB7.

He completed 388 of 612 passes for 3931 yards, 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 356 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 100 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Bo Nix, Week 18 of 2025 against LAC: 14 of 23 passes for 141 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 8 carries for 49 yards, 10.5 PPR points.

In 2025, Geno Smith played 15 games for LV and scored 190.9 PPR points, 12.7 a game, finishing QB23.

He completed 302 of 448 passes for 3025 yards, 19 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, and ran 41 times for 109 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Geno Smith, Week 17 of 2025 against NYG: 53 of 59 snaps, 20 of 28 passes for 176 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 1 carry for 1 yards, 9.1 PPR points.

Their other Week 3 calls

• Start Bo Nix over Aaron Rodgers.
• Start Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Bryce Young over Bo Nix.
• Start Geno Smith over Aaron Rodgers.
• Start Baker Mayfield over Geno Smith.
• Start Geno Smith over Cam Ward.