Start Baker Mayfield or Justin Herbert? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Justin Herbert over Baker Mayfield
- ARI D vs QB
- 14.3
- 11th fewest to QBs (2026)
- CIN D vs QB
- 11.6
- 6th fewest to QBs (2026)
Our Week 1 call
Start Justin Herbert over Baker Mayfield in Week 1.
Neither player has a posted player market for this week, so this call is ADP and news based rather than priced against the betting market. Drafters take Justin Herbert at ADP 109 and Baker Mayfield at 125.
What the books imply
No sportsbook posted a player market for Justin Herbert in Week 1.
No sportsbook posted a player market for Baker Mayfield in Week 1.
Week 1 matchups
Justin Herbert and LAC host ARI.
ARI allowed 14.3 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 11th fewest in the league.
Quarterbacks threw for 209 yards and a touchdown against ARI, with an interception.
Baker Mayfield and TB visit CIN.
CIN allowed 11.6 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 6th fewest in the league.
Quarterbacks threw for 216 yards and no touchdowns against CIN, with no interceptions.
By points allowed to the position, Justin Herbert has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Justin Herbert was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Baker Mayfield was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Justin Herbert played 16 games for LAC and scored 299.9 PPR points, 18.7 a game, finishing QB10.
He completed 340 of 512 passes for 3727 yards, 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 498 yards and 2 touchdowns.
He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Justin Herbert, Week 17 of 2025 against HOU: 63 of 63 snaps, 21 of 32 passes for 236 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 6 carries for 37 yards, 16.1 PPR points.
Justin Herbert, Week 16 of 2025 against DAL: 64 of 64 snaps, 23 of 29 passes for 300 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 8 carries for 42 yards, 30.2 PPR points.
Justin Herbert, Week 15 of 2025 against KC: 66 of 66 snaps, 19 of 29 passes for 210 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 0 yards, 11.4 PPR points.
In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.
He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.
He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Baker Mayfield, Week 18 of 2025 against CAR: 67 of 67 snaps, 16 of 22 passes for 203 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 31 yards, 14.2 PPR points.
Baker Mayfield, Week 17 of 2025 against MIA: 67 of 67 snaps, 33 of 44 passes for 346 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 3 carries for 16 yards, 19.4 PPR points.
Baker Mayfield, Week 16 of 2025 against CAR: 64 of 64 snaps, 18 of 26 passes for 145 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 49 yards, 13.7 PPR points.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
QB22 · TB · bye 10
2025 vs pass yds line 8-9
- Overall rank
- 59
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 3
Ranked behind
QB26 · LAC · bye 7
2025 vs pass yds line 6-10
- Overall rank
- 75
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 4
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board16
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tierstier 3 and tier 4
- Board size244 draftable players
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