Start Baker Mayfield or Daniel Jones? Week 3

Our Week 3 call

Start Baker Mayfield over Daniel Jones in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project Baker Mayfield at 16.8 points and Daniel Jones at 15.9, a gap of 0.9. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 16.8 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Baker Mayfield at 216.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 16.5 rushing yards, with a 14% chance to score a touchdown (12, 16, 14 and 13 books).

Player prop markets imply 16.0 fantasy points for Daniel Jones, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Daniel Jones at 220.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 9.5 rushing yards, with a 13% chance to score a touchdown (15, 17, 14 and 15 books).

That puts Baker Mayfield 0.9 points ahead of Daniel Jones on the books.

Injury status

Baker Mayfield is not on the injury report.

Daniel Jones is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 2, Baker Mayfield played 100 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 76 times and threw an average of 9.1 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Through Week 2, Daniel Jones played 100 percent of IND snaps, dropped back 67 times and threw an average of 5.9 air yards per attempt.

Daniel Jones, Week 1 against BAL: 54 of 54 snaps, 19 of 31 passes for 166 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 1 carry for 4 yards.

Daniel Jones, Week 2 against KC: 65 of 65 snaps, 22 of 31 passes for 210 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 3 carries for 10 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Baker Mayfield, Week 18 of 2025 against CAR: 67 of 67 snaps, 16 of 22 passes for 203 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 31 yards, 14.2 PPR points.

In 2025, Daniel Jones played 13 games for IND and scored 234.4 PPR points, 18.0 a game, finishing QB17.

He completed 261 of 384 passes for 3101 yards, 19 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran 45 times for 164 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 91 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 3 calls

• Start Baker Mayfield over Aaron Rodgers.
• Start Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Baker Mayfield over Cam Ward.
• Start Daniel Jones over Aaron Rodgers.
• Start Daniel Jones over Cam Ward.
• Start Geno Smith over Daniel Jones.