Start Caleb Williams or Justin Herbert? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Caleb Williams over Justin Herbert in Week 1.

Justin Herbert is priced by the books at 8.9 projected points and Caleb Williams is not priced at all, so we are leaning on where drafters take them. Drafters take Caleb Williams at ADP 86 and Justin Herbert at 108.

What the books imply

No sportsbook posted a player market for Caleb Williams in Week 1.

Player prop markets imply 8.9 fantasy points for Justin Herbert, with 55 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

Week 1 matchups

Caleb Williams and CHI visit CAR.

CAR allowed 37.3 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 269 yards and 2 touchdowns against CAR, with no interceptions.

Justin Herbert and LAC host ARI on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

ARI allowed 14.3 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 11th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 209 yards and a touchdown against ARI, with an interception.

By points allowed to the position, Caleb Williams has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Caleb Williams was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Justin Herbert was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Caleb Williams played 17 games for CHI and scored 325.2 PPR points, 19.1 a game, finishing QB5.

He completed 330 of 568 passes for 3942 yards, 27 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and ran 77 times for 383 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Caleb Williams, Week 18 of 2025 against DET: 20 of 33 passes for 212 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 1 yards, 17.6 PPR points.

Caleb Williams, Week 17 of 2025 against SF: 66 of 66 snaps, 25 of 42 passes for 330 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 5 carries for 18 yards, 23.0 PPR points.

Caleb Williams, Week 16 of 2025 against GB: 64 of 64 snaps, 19 of 34 passes for 250 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 30 yards, 21.0 PPR points.

In 2025, Justin Herbert played 16 games for LAC and scored 299.9 PPR points, 18.7 a game, finishing QB10.

He completed 340 of 512 passes for 3727 yards, 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 498 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Justin Herbert, Week 17 of 2025 against HOU: 63 of 63 snaps, 21 of 32 passes for 236 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 6 carries for 37 yards, 16.1 PPR points.

Justin Herbert, Week 16 of 2025 against DAL: 64 of 64 snaps, 23 of 29 passes for 300 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 8 carries for 42 yards, 30.2 PPR points.

Justin Herbert, Week 15 of 2025 against KC: 66 of 66 snaps, 19 of 29 passes for 210 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 0 yards, 11.4 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Caleb Williams scored 37.3 PPR points and Justin Herbert scored 14.3.

The call was right: Caleb Williams outscored Justin Herbert by 23.0.

Caleb Williams, Week 1 against CAR: 75 of 75 snaps, 21 of 29 passes for 269 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 10 carries for 65 yards, 37.3 PPR points.

Caleb Williams finished as the week's QB1 in PPR scoring.

Justin Herbert finished 5.4 points above the 8.9 the props implied.

Justin Herbert, Week 1 against ARI: 55 of 55 snaps, 17 of 27 passes for 209 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 5 carries for 29 yards, 14.3 PPR points.

Justin Herbert finished as the week's QB22 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Brock Purdy over Caleb Williams.
• Start Dak Prescott over Caleb Williams.
• Start Caleb Williams over Jalen Hurts.
• Start Justin Herbert over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Justin Herbert over Bo Nix.
• Start Brock Purdy over Justin Herbert.