Start Bo Nix or Justin Herbert? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Justin Herbert over Bo Nix in Week 1.

De-vigged player props project Justin Herbert at 9.4 points and Bo Nix at 1.3, a gap of 8.1. Drafters take Justin Herbert at ADP 105 and Bo Nix at 109. Market coverage on Justin Herbert is 45 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 9.4 fantasy points for Justin Herbert, with 45 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

Player prop markets imply 1.3 fantasy points for Bo Nix, with 33 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

That puts Justin Herbert 8.1 points ahead of Bo Nix on the books.

Week 1 matchups

Justin Herbert and LAC host ARI on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

ARI allowed 14.3 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 11th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 209 yards and a touchdown against ARI, with an interception.

Bo Nix and DEN visit KC on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

KC allowed 6.4 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 131 yards and a touchdown against KC, with an interception.

By points allowed to the position, Justin Herbert has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Justin Herbert was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Bo Nix was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Justin Herbert played 16 games for LAC and scored 299.9 PPR points, 18.7 a game, finishing QB10.

He completed 340 of 512 passes for 3727 yards, 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 498 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Justin Herbert, Week 17 of 2025 against HOU: 63 of 63 snaps, 21 of 32 passes for 236 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 6 carries for 37 yards, 16.1 PPR points.

Justin Herbert, Week 16 of 2025 against DAL: 64 of 64 snaps, 23 of 29 passes for 300 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 8 carries for 42 yards, 30.2 PPR points.

Justin Herbert, Week 15 of 2025 against KC: 66 of 66 snaps, 19 of 29 passes for 210 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 0 yards, 11.4 PPR points.

In 2025, Bo Nix played 17 games for DEN and scored 315.8 PPR points, 18.6 a game, finishing QB7.

He completed 388 of 612 passes for 3931 yards, 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 356 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 100 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Bo Nix, Week 18 of 2025 against LAC: 14 of 23 passes for 141 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 8 carries for 49 yards, 10.5 PPR points.

Bo Nix, Week 17 of 2025 against KC: 72 of 72 snaps, 26 of 38 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 9 carries for 42 yards, 20.5 PPR points.

Bo Nix, Week 16 of 2025 against JAX: 66 of 66 snaps, 28 of 47 passes for 352 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 11 yards, 16.2 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Justin Herbert scored 14.3 PPR points and Bo Nix scored 6.4.

The call was right: Justin Herbert outscored Bo Nix by 7.8.

Justin Herbert finished 4.9 points above the 9.4 the props implied.

Justin Herbert, Week 1 against ARI: 55 of 55 snaps, 17 of 27 passes for 209 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 5 carries for 29 yards, 14.3 PPR points.

Justin Herbert finished as the week's QB22 in PPR scoring.

Bo Nix finished 5.2 points above the 1.3 the props implied.

Bo Nix, Week 1 against KC: 51 of 51 snaps, 17 of 28 passes for 131 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 3 carries for 2 yards, 6.4 PPR points.

Bo Nix finished as the week's QB31 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Justin Herbert over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Brock Purdy over Justin Herbert.
• Start Caleb Williams over Justin Herbert.
• Start Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Brock Purdy over Bo Nix.
• Start Bo Nix over Jared Goff.