Start Patrick Mahomes or Baker Mayfield? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Patrick Mahomes over Baker Mayfield in Week 1.

Patrick Mahomes is priced by the books at 9.4 projected points. Baker Mayfield has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Patrick Mahomes at ADP 112 and Baker Mayfield at 126.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 9.4 fantasy points for Patrick Mahomes, with 75 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

No sportsbook posted a player market for Baker Mayfield in Week 1.

Week 1 matchups

Patrick Mahomes and KC host DEN on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

DEN allowed 22.7 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 9th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 184 yards and 2 touchdowns against DEN, with an interception.

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CIN.

CIN allowed 11.6 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 6th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 216 yards and no touchdowns against CIN, with no interceptions.

By points allowed to the position, Patrick Mahomes has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Patrick Mahomes was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Baker Mayfield was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Patrick Mahomes played 14 games for KC and scored 296.7 PPR points, 21.2 a game, finishing QB11.

He completed 315 of 502 passes for 3587 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 64 times for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 15 of 2025 against LAC: 56 of 61 snaps, 16 of 28 passes for 189 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 15 yards, 14.1 PPR points.

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Baker Mayfield, Week 18 of 2025 against CAR: 67 of 67 snaps, 16 of 22 passes for 203 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 31 yards, 14.2 PPR points.

Baker Mayfield, Week 17 of 2025 against MIA: 67 of 67 snaps, 33 of 44 passes for 346 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 3 carries for 16 yards, 19.4 PPR points.

Baker Mayfield, Week 16 of 2025 against CAR: 64 of 64 snaps, 18 of 26 passes for 145 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 49 yards, 13.7 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Patrick Mahomes scored 22.7 PPR points and Baker Mayfield scored 11.6.

The call was right: Patrick Mahomes outscored Baker Mayfield by 11.0.

Patrick Mahomes finished 13.2 points above the 9.4 the props implied.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 1 against DEN: 69 of 69 snaps, 15 of 27 passes for 184 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 7 carries for 23 yards, 22.7 PPR points.

Patrick Mahomes finished as the week's QB9 in PPR scoring.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 5 carries for 30 yards, 11.6 PPR points.

Baker Mayfield finished as the week's QB27 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Bo Nix over Patrick Mahomes.
• Start Caleb Williams over Patrick Mahomes.
• Start Jared Goff over Patrick Mahomes.
• Start Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Jaxson Dart over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Baker Mayfield over Jordan Love.