Start Bo Nix or Patrick Mahomes? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Bo Nix over Patrick Mahomes in Week 1.

De-vigged player props project Bo Nix at 10.9 points and Patrick Mahomes at 9.4, a gap of 1.4. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Drafters take Bo Nix at ADP 109 and Patrick Mahomes at 112.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 10.9 fantasy points for Bo Nix, with 75 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

Player prop markets imply 9.4 fantasy points for Patrick Mahomes, with 75 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

That puts Bo Nix 1.4 points ahead of Patrick Mahomes on the books.

Week 1 matchups

Bo Nix and DEN visit KC on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

KC allowed 6.4 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 131 yards and a touchdown against KC, with an interception.

Patrick Mahomes and KC host DEN on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

DEN allowed 22.7 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 9th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 184 yards and 2 touchdowns against DEN, with an interception.

By points allowed to the position, Patrick Mahomes has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Bo Nix was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Patrick Mahomes was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Bo Nix played 17 games for DEN and scored 315.8 PPR points, 18.6 a game, finishing QB7.

He completed 388 of 612 passes for 3931 yards, 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 356 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 100 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Bo Nix, Week 18 of 2025 against LAC: 14 of 23 passes for 141 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 8 carries for 49 yards, 10.5 PPR points.

Bo Nix, Week 17 of 2025 against KC: 72 of 72 snaps, 26 of 38 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 9 carries for 42 yards, 20.5 PPR points.

Bo Nix, Week 16 of 2025 against JAX: 66 of 66 snaps, 28 of 47 passes for 352 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 11 yards, 16.2 PPR points.

In 2025, Patrick Mahomes played 14 games for KC and scored 296.7 PPR points, 21.2 a game, finishing QB11.

He completed 315 of 502 passes for 3587 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 64 times for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 15 of 2025 against LAC: 56 of 61 snaps, 16 of 28 passes for 189 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 15 yards, 14.1 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Bo Nix scored 6.4 PPR points and Patrick Mahomes scored 22.7.

The call was wrong: Patrick Mahomes outscored Bo Nix by 16.2.

Bo Nix finished 4.4 points below the 10.9 the props implied.

Bo Nix, Week 1 against KC: 51 of 51 snaps, 17 of 28 passes for 131 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 3 carries for 2 yards, 6.4 PPR points.

Bo Nix finished as the week's QB31 in PPR scoring.

Patrick Mahomes finished 13.2 points above the 9.4 the props implied.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 1 against DEN: 69 of 69 snaps, 15 of 27 passes for 184 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 7 carries for 23 yards, 22.7 PPR points.

Patrick Mahomes finished as the week's QB9 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Brock Purdy over Bo Nix.
• Start Bo Nix over Jared Goff.
• Start Patrick Mahomes over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Caleb Williams over Patrick Mahomes.
• Start Jared Goff over Patrick Mahomes.