Start Caleb Williams or Patrick Mahomes? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Caleb Williams over Patrick Mahomes
- CAR D vs QB
- 37.3
- most to QBs (2026)
- DEN D vs QB
- 22.7
- 9th most to QBs (2026)
Our Week 1 call
Start Caleb Williams over Patrick Mahomes in Week 1.
Neither player has a posted player market for this week, so this call is ADP and news based rather than priced against the betting market. Drafters take Caleb Williams at ADP 91 and Patrick Mahomes at 106.
What the books imply
No sportsbook posted a player market for Caleb Williams in Week 1.
No sportsbook posted a player market for Patrick Mahomes in Week 1.
Week 1 matchups
Caleb Williams and CHI visit CAR.
CAR allowed 37.3 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the most in the league.
Quarterbacks threw for 269 yards and 2 touchdowns against CAR, with no interceptions.
Patrick Mahomes and KC host DEN.
DEN allowed 22.7 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 9th most in the league.
Quarterbacks threw for 184 yards and 2 touchdowns against DEN, with an interception.
By points allowed to the position, Caleb Williams has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Caleb Williams was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Patrick Mahomes was listed as questionable when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Caleb Williams played 17 games for CHI and scored 325.2 PPR points, 19.1 a game, finishing QB5.
He completed 330 of 568 passes for 3942 yards, 27 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and ran 77 times for 383 yards and 3 touchdowns.
He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Caleb Williams, Week 18 of 2025 against DET: 20 of 33 passes for 212 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 1 yards, 17.6 PPR points.
Caleb Williams, Week 17 of 2025 against SF: 66 of 66 snaps, 25 of 42 passes for 330 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 5 carries for 18 yards, 23.0 PPR points.
Caleb Williams, Week 16 of 2025 against GB: 64 of 64 snaps, 19 of 34 passes for 250 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 30 yards, 21.0 PPR points.
In 2025, Patrick Mahomes played 14 games for KC and scored 296.7 PPR points, 21.2 a game, finishing QB11.
He completed 315 of 502 passes for 3587 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 64 times for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns.
He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Patrick Mahomes, Week 15 of 2025 against LAC: 56 of 61 snaps, 16 of 28 passes for 189 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 15 yards, 14.1 PPR points.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
QB9 · CHI · bye 10
2025 vs pass yds line 10-7
- Overall rank
- 25
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 1
Ranked behind
QB20 · KC · bye 5
2025 vs pass yds line 6-8
- Overall rank
- 45
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 1
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board20
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tiersboth in tier 1
- Board size244 draftable players
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