Start Patrick Mahomes or Brock Purdy? Week 3

Our Week 3 call

Start Brock Purdy over Patrick Mahomes in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project Brock Purdy at 19.5 points and Patrick Mahomes at 19.3, a gap of 0.2. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 19.5 fantasy points for Brock Purdy, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Brock Purdy at 237.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns, with a 25% chance to score a touchdown (16, 16 and 14 books).

Player prop markets imply 19.3 fantasy points for Patrick Mahomes, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Patrick Mahomes at 235.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 17.5 rushing yards, with a 22% chance to score a touchdown (15, 17, 13 and 15 books).

That puts Brock Purdy 0.2 points ahead of Patrick Mahomes on the books.

Injury status

Brock Purdy is not on the injury report.

Patrick Mahomes is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 2, Brock Purdy played 93 percent of SF snaps, dropped back 61 times and threw an average of 5.9 air yards per attempt.

Brock Purdy, Week 1 against LAR: 65 of 65 snaps, 25 of 34 passes for 205 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 5 carries for 29 yards.

Brock Purdy, Week 2 against MIA: 44 of 52 snaps, 20 of 22 passes for 287 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 30 yards.

Through Week 2, Patrick Mahomes played 100 percent of KC snaps, dropped back 84 times and threw an average of 5.3 air yards per attempt.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 1 against DEN: 69 of 69 snaps, 15 of 27 passes for 184 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 4 carries for 27 yards.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 2 against IND: 80 of 80 snaps, 32 of 47 passes for 382 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 17 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Brock Purdy played 9 games for SF and scored 187.4 PPR points, 20.8 a game, finishing QB24.

He completed 197 of 284 passes for 2167 yards, 20 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and ran 33 times for 147 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Brock Purdy, Week 18 of 2025 against SEA: 42 of 42 snaps, 19 of 27 passes for 127 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 21 yards, 6.2 PPR points.

In 2025, Patrick Mahomes played 14 games for KC and scored 296.7 PPR points, 21.2 a game, finishing QB11.

He completed 315 of 502 passes for 3587 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 64 times for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 15 of 2025 against LAC: 56 of 61 snaps, 16 of 28 passes for 189 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 15 yards, 14.1 PPR points.

Their other Week 3 calls

• Start Brock Purdy over Dak Prescott.
• Start Jalen Hurts over Brock Purdy.
• Start Brock Purdy over Jared Goff.
• Start Patrick Mahomes over Dak Prescott.
• Start Patrick Mahomes over Drake Maye.
• Start Jalen Hurts over Patrick Mahomes.