Start Patrick Mahomes or Dak Prescott? Week 3

Our Week 3 call

Start Patrick Mahomes over Dak Prescott in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project Patrick Mahomes at 19.3 points and Dak Prescott at 18.9, a gap of 0.5. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 19.3 fantasy points for Patrick Mahomes, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Patrick Mahomes at 235.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 17.5 rushing yards, with a 22% chance to score a touchdown (15, 17, 13 and 15 books).

Player prop markets imply 18.9 fantasy points for Dak Prescott, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Dak Prescott at 264.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 12.5 rushing yards, with a 14% chance to score a touchdown (15, 17, 14 and 15 books).

That puts Patrick Mahomes 0.5 points ahead of Dak Prescott on the books.

Injury status

Patrick Mahomes is not on the injury report.

Dak Prescott is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 2, Patrick Mahomes played 100 percent of KC snaps, dropped back 84 times and threw an average of 5.3 air yards per attempt.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 1 against DEN: 69 of 69 snaps, 15 of 27 passes for 184 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 4 carries for 27 yards.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 2 against IND: 80 of 80 snaps, 32 of 47 passes for 382 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 17 yards.

Through Week 2, Dak Prescott played 100 percent of DAL snaps, dropped back 72 times and threw an average of 8.5 air yards per attempt.

Dak Prescott, Week 1 against NYG: 58 of 58 snaps, 22 of 34 passes for 175 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 14 yards.

Dak Prescott, Week 2 against WAS: 55 of 55 snaps, 26 of 31 passes for 279 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 26 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Patrick Mahomes played 14 games for KC and scored 296.7 PPR points, 21.2 a game, finishing QB11.

He completed 315 of 502 passes for 3587 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 64 times for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 15 of 2025 against LAC: 56 of 61 snaps, 16 of 28 passes for 189 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 15 yards, 14.1 PPR points.

In 2025, Dak Prescott played 17 games for DAL and scored 323.8 PPR points, 19.0 a game, finishing QB6.

He completed 404 of 600 passes for 4552 yards, 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and ran 53 times for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Dak Prescott, Week 18 of 2025 against NYG: 7 of 11 passes for 70 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for -1 yards, 0.7 PPR points.

Their other Week 3 calls

• Start Brock Purdy over Patrick Mahomes.
• Start Patrick Mahomes over Drake Maye.
• Start Jalen Hurts over Patrick Mahomes.
• Start Brock Purdy over Dak Prescott.
• Start Dak Prescott over Drake Maye.
• Start Jared Goff over Dak Prescott.