Start Derrick Henry or Christian McCaffrey? Week 3

Our Week 3 call

Start Christian McCaffrey over Derrick Henry in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project Christian McCaffrey at 19.7 points and Derrick Henry at 18.4, a gap of 1.3. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Christian McCaffrey's number is scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have. Market coverage on Christian McCaffrey is 70 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 19.7 fantasy points for Christian McCaffrey, with 70 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

The books have Christian McCaffrey at 55.5 rushing yards, with a 70% chance to score a touchdown (11 and 15 books).

Player prop markets imply 18.4 fantasy points for Derrick Henry, with 100 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

The books have Derrick Henry at 89.5 rushing yards, 10.5 receiving yards and 1.5 receptions, with a 68% chance to score a touchdown (15, 13, 12 and 15 books).

That puts Christian McCaffrey 1.3 points ahead of Derrick Henry on the books.

Injury status

Christian McCaffrey is not on the injury report.

Derrick Henry is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 2, Christian McCaffrey played 54 percent of SF snaps, took 36 percent of the carries, drew 22 percent of the targets and had 36 percent of the red zone chances.

Christian McCaffrey, Week 1 against LAR: 36 of 65 snaps, 10 carries for 68 yards, 8 targets and 5 catches for 20 yards.

Christian McCaffrey, Week 2 against MIA: 27 of 52 snaps, 10 carries for 23 yards, 4 targets and 4 catches for 43 yards, 2 touchdowns.

Through Week 2, Derrick Henry played 54 percent of BAL snaps, took 71 percent of the carries, drew 8 percent of the targets and had 65 percent of the red zone chances.

Derrick Henry, Week 1 against IND: 37 of 68 snaps, 24 carries for 144 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 19 yards, 3 touchdowns.

Derrick Henry, Week 2 against NO: 31 of 58 snaps, 16 carries for 68 yards, 3 targets and 3 catches for 19 yards, 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Christian McCaffrey played 17 games for SF and scored 416.6 PPR points, 24.5 a game, finishing RB1.

He ran 311 times for 1202 yards and 10 touchdowns, and caught 102 of 129 targets for 924 yards.

He was on the field for 83 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Christian McCaffrey, Week 18 of 2025 against SEA: 36 of 42 snaps, 8 carries for 23 yards, 7 targets and 6 catches for 34 yards, 11.7 PPR points.

In 2025, Derrick Henry played 17 games for BAL and scored 279.5 PPR points, 16.4 a game, finishing RB8.

He ran 307 times for 1595 yards and 16 touchdowns, and caught 15 of 21 targets for 150 yards.

He was on the field for 54 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Derrick Henry, Week 18 of 2025 against PIT: 20 carries for 126 yards, 1 target and 0 catches for 0 yards, 12.6 PPR points.

Their other Week 3 calls

• Start Christian McCaffrey over Ashton Jeanty.
• Start Bijan Robinson over Christian McCaffrey.
• Start Christian McCaffrey over Breece Hall.
• Start Derrick Henry over Ashton Jeanty.
• Start Bijan Robinson over Derrick Henry.
• Start Derrick Henry over Chase Brown.