Christian McCaffrey or Derrick Henry: who should I start?

What the sportsbooks price

The player markets price Christian McCaffrey at 21.3 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 17 books. That is the 2nd highest figure of the 183 players the books price.

The player markets price Derrick Henry at 18.4 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 17 books. That is the 11th highest figure of the 183 players the books price.

Where the draft room stands

Drafters have formed no consensus on Christian McCaffrey: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 2nd overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 9.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Derrick Henry: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 5th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 11.

This season through Week 1

Through Week 1, Christian McCaffrey has been on the field for 55 percent of SF snaps, taken 33 percent of the carries, drawn 24 percent of the targets and had 20 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 3 of the offence's 10 third down targets, had 0 of its 3 chances inside the five and seen 2 of its 3 two minute targets.

His 8 targets have come 0.4 yards behind the line of scrimmage on average.

In Week 1 against LAR he carried 10 times for 68 yards, caught 5 of 8 targets for 20 yards and did not score.

Through Week 1, Derrick Henry has been on the field for 54 percent of BAL snaps, taken 71 percent of the carries, drawn 4 percent of the targets and had 55 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 0 of the offence's 6 third down targets, had 2 of its 4 chances inside the five and seen 0 of its 4 two minute targets.

His 1 target have come 1.0 yards behind the line of scrimmage on average.

In Week 1 against IND he carried 24 times for 144 yards, caught 1 of 1 target for 19 yards and scored 3 touchdowns.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Christian McCaffrey played 17 games and scored 416.6 PPR points, 24.5 a game, finishing RB1.

He carried 311 times for 1202 yards and 10 touchdowns, and caught 102 of 129 targets for 924 more yards.

That came to 18.3 carries a game at 3.9 yards a carry and 6.0 catches a game.

He was on the field for 83 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Derrick Henry played 17 games and scored 279.5 PPR points, 16.4 a game, finishing RB8.

He carried 307 times for 1595 yards and 16 touchdowns, and caught 15 of 21 targets for 150 more yards.

That came to 18.1 carries a game at 5.2 yards a carry and 0.9 catches a game.

He was on the field for 54 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Both were available for 17 games that season.

Head to head

In 2025 Christian McCaffrey scored 24.5 PPR points a game and Derrick Henry 16.4, 8.1 a game between them.

Christian McCaffrey finished RB1 that year and Derrick Henry RB8.

Christian McCaffrey had 4 more carries than Derrick Henry, 311 to 307.

Christian McCaffrey had 87 more catches than Derrick Henry, 102 to 15.

This season Christian McCaffrey holds the bigger snap share, 55 percent against 54 percent.

This season Derrick Henry holds the bigger share of the carries, 71 percent against 33 percent.

Byes and availability

Christian McCaffrey is off in Week 8 and Derrick Henry in Week 13, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

2.9 points a game is the entire case. The books restate it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the price, and this page will follow the sample rather than the books when it does.