Start Dalton Kincaid or T.J. Hockenson? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Dalton Kincaid over T.J. Hockenson
Right: 18.0 to 13.6Corrected Sep 15: regraded against official Sleeper stats (was Wrong, now Right)
- Books imply
- 1.8
- fantasy pts
- HOU D vs TE
- 19.7
- 6th most to TEs (2026)
- Snap share
- 72%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 21%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 18.0
- PPR pts
- GB D vs TE
- 17.8
- 8th most to TEs (2026)
- Snap share
- 66%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 22%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 13.6
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Dalton Kincaid over T.J. Hockenson in Week 1.
Dalton Kincaid is priced by the books at 1.8 projected points. T.J. Hockenson has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Dalton Kincaid at ADP 156 and T.J. Hockenson at 186. Market coverage on Dalton Kincaid is 33 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 1.8 fantasy points for Dalton Kincaid, with 33 percent of the markets a TE needs posted.
No sportsbook posted a player market for T.J. Hockenson in Week 1.
Week 1 matchups
Dalton Kincaid and BUF visit HOU on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
HOU allowed 19.7 fantasy points to TEs in its one game this season, the 6th most in the league.
Tight ends caught passes for 137 yards and no touchdowns against HOU.
T.J. Hockenson and MIN host GB.
GB allowed 17.8 fantasy points to TEs in its one game this season, the 8th most in the league.
Tight ends caught passes for 58 yards and a touchdown against GB.
By points allowed to the position, Dalton Kincaid has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Dalton Kincaid was not on the injury report when the call was made.
T.J. Hockenson was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Dalton Kincaid played 12 games for BUF and scored 126.1 PPR points, 10.5 a game, finishing TE20.
He caught 39 of 49 targets for 571 yards and 5 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets and 312 air yards.
He was on the field for 40 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Dalton Kincaid, Week 18 of 2025 against NYJ: 3 targets and 3 catches for 48 yards, 7.8 PPR points.
Dalton Kincaid, Week 16 of 2025 against CLE: 19 of 50 snaps, 1 target and 0 catches for 0 yards.
Dalton Kincaid, Week 15 of 2025 against NE: 25 of 70 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 34 yards, 6.4 PPR points.
In 2025, T.J. Hockenson played 15 games for MIN and scored 112.8 PPR points, 7.5 a game, finishing TE26.
He caught 51 of 66 targets for 438 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 11 red zone targets and 224 air yards.
He was on the field for 79 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
T.J. Hockenson, Week 16 of 2025 against NYG: 46 of 61 snaps, 1 target and 1 catch for 2 yards, 1.2 PPR points.
T.J. Hockenson, Week 15 of 2025 against DAL: 44 of 55 snaps, 5 targets and 4 catches for 66 yards, 10.6 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
Dalton Kincaid scored 18.0 PPR points and T.J. Hockenson scored 13.6.
The call was right: Dalton Kincaid outscored T.J. Hockenson by 4.4.
Dalton Kincaid finished 16.2 points above the 1.8 the props implied.
Dalton Kincaid, Week 1 against HOU: 42 of 58 snaps, 6 targets and 5 catches for 130 yards, 18.0 PPR points.
Dalton Kincaid finished as the week's TE5 in PPR scoring.
T.J. Hockenson, Week 1 against GB: 43 of 65 snaps, 5 targets and 4 catches for 36 yards, 1 touchdown, 13.6 PPR points.
T.J. Hockenson finished as the week's TE9 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
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