Should I start T.J. Hockenson or Dalton Kincaid in Week 9?

The market-based projections

T.J. Hockenson's market-based projection is 10.9 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 8 market sources. That is the 64th highest figure of the 220 players with a market-based projection.

Dalton Kincaid's market-based projection is 9.9 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 8 market sources. That is the 75th highest figure of the 220 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on T.J. Hockenson, and the board ranks him 68th overall on the rest of his evidence.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Dalton Kincaid, and the board ranks him 77th overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season through Week 8

Through Week 8, T.J. Hockenson has been on the field for 65 percent of MIN snaps, drawn 20 percent of the targets and had 19 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 15 of the offence's 68 third down targets, had 1 of its 4 chances inside the five and seen 3 of its 15 two minute targets.

His 37 targets have averaged 7.4 air yards.

In Week 5 against NO he caught 1 of 1 target for 7 yards and did not score.

In Week 7 against IND he caught 4 of 5 targets for 35 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 8 against DET he caught 4 of 5 targets for 58 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

Through Week 8, Dalton Kincaid has been on the field for 66 percent of BUF snaps, drawn 18 percent of the targets and had 8 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 6 of the offence's 49 third down targets, had 0 of its 26 chances inside the five and seen 5 of its 27 two minute targets.

His 35 targets have averaged 10.1 air yards.

In Week 5 against LAR he caught 1 of 2 targets for 7 yards and did not score.

In Week 6 against LV he caught 7 of 8 targets for 38 yards and did not score.

In Week 8 against BAL he caught 4 of 6 targets for 86 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 T.J. Hockenson played 15 games and scored 112.8 PPR points, 7.5 a game, finishing TE26.

He caught 51 of 66 targets for 438 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 11 red zone targets.

That came to 4.4 targets a game, a 77 percent catch rate and 8.6 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 79 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Dalton Kincaid played 12 games and scored 126.1 PPR points, 10.5 a game, finishing TE20.

He caught 39 of 49 targets for 571 yards and 5 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets.

That came to 4.1 targets a game, a 80 percent catch rate and 14.6 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 40 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

T.J. Hockenson was available for 3 games more.

Head to head

In 2025 Dalton Kincaid scored 10.5 PPR points a game and T.J. Hockenson 7.5, 3.0 a game between them.

T.J. Hockenson finished TE26 that year and Dalton Kincaid TE20.

T.J. Hockenson had 17 more targets than Dalton Kincaid, 66 to 49.

Dalton Kincaid had 133 more receiving yards than T.J. Hockenson, 571 to 438.

This season Dalton Kincaid holds the bigger snap share, 66 percent against 65 percent.

This season T.J. Hockenson holds the bigger target share, 20 percent against 18 percent.

Byes and availability

T.J. Hockenson is off in Week 6 and Dalton Kincaid in Week 7, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

1.0 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when live drafts hold these two again they can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the drafts rather than the market-based projection when they do.