Start Michael Pittman Jr. or DK Metcalf? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start DK Metcalf over Michael Pittman Jr.
Wrong: 8.0 to 8.8
- Books imply
- 4.8
- fantasy pts
- ATL D vs WR
- 22.4
- 8th fewest to WRs (2026)
- Snap share
- 96%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 27%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 8.0
- PPR pts
- Books imply
- 3.9
- fantasy pts
- ATL D vs WR
- 22.4
- 8th fewest to WRs (2026)
- Snap share
- 88%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 8%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 8.8
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start DK Metcalf over Michael Pittman Jr. in Week 1.
De-vigged player props project DK Metcalf at 4.8 points and Michael Pittman Jr. at 3.9, a gap of 1.0. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Drafters take DK Metcalf at ADP 65 and Michael Pittman Jr. at 74. Market coverage on DK Metcalf is 40 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 4.9 fantasy points for DK Metcalf, with 40 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.
Player prop markets imply 3.9 fantasy points for Michael Pittman Jr., with 40 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.
That puts DK Metcalf 1.0 points ahead of Michael Pittman Jr. on the books.
Week 1 matchups
DK Metcalf and PIT host ATL on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
ATL allowed 22.4 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 8th fewest in the league.
Receivers caught passes for 124 yards and no touchdowns against ATL.
Michael Pittman Jr. and PIT host ATL on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
ATL allowed 22.4 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 8th fewest in the league.
Receivers caught passes for 124 yards and no touchdowns against ATL.
Injury status
DK Metcalf was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Michael Pittman Jr. was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, DK Metcalf played 15 games for PIT and scored 187.2 PPR points, 12.5 a game, finishing WR26.
He caught 59 of 99 targets for 850 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 13 red zone targets and 436 air yards.
He was on the field for 87 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
DK Metcalf, Week 16 of 2025 against DET: 65 of 74 snaps, 9 targets and 4 catches for 42 yards, 8.2 PPR points.
DK Metcalf, Week 15 of 2025 against MIA: 52 of 66 snaps, 3 targets and 3 catches for 55 yards, 1 touchdown, 14.5 PPR points.
In 2025, Michael Pittman Jr. played 17 games for IND and scored 202.4 PPR points, 11.9 a game, finishing WR18.
He caught 80 of 111 targets for 784 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 12 red zone targets and 525 air yards.
He was on the field for 85 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Michael Pittman Jr., Week 18 of 2025 against HOU: 4 targets and 2 catches for 11 yards, 3.1 PPR points.
Michael Pittman Jr., Week 17 of 2025 against JAX: 49 of 57 snaps, 3 targets and 2 catches for 16 yards, 3.6 PPR points.
Michael Pittman Jr., Week 16 of 2025 against SF: 56 of 60 snaps, 5 targets and 4 catches for 32 yards, 7.2 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
DK Metcalf scored 8.0 PPR points and Michael Pittman Jr. scored 8.8.
The call was wrong: Michael Pittman Jr. outscored DK Metcalf by 0.8.
DK Metcalf finished 3.2 points above the 4.9 the props implied.
DK Metcalf, Week 1 against ATL: 64 of 67 snaps, 10 targets and 4 catches for 40 yards, 8.0 PPR points.
DK Metcalf finished as the week's WR50 in PPR scoring.
Michael Pittman Jr. finished 5.0 points above the 3.9 the props implied.
Michael Pittman Jr., Week 1 against ATL: 59 of 67 snaps, 3 targets and 3 catches for 58 yards, 8.8 PPR points.
Michael Pittman Jr. finished as the week's WR44 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
WR20 · PIT · bye 9
2025 vs rec yds line 5-12
- Overall rank
- 83
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 5
Ranked behind
WR33 · PIT · bye 9
2025 vs catches line 5-10
- Overall rank
- 100
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 5
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board17
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tiersboth in tier 5
- Board size244 draftable players
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