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Start Jake Ferguson or Hunter Henry? Week 1

Locks at kickoff, graded after.

Start Jake Ferguson over Hunter Henry

Wrong: 2.6 to 5.6
Start

Jake Ferguson

TE · DAL · at NYG

NYG D vs TE
8.2
9th fewest to TEs (2026)
Snap share
76%
Week 1
Target share
7%
Week 1
Scored
2.6
PPR pts
Sit

Hunter Henry

TE · NE · at SEA

Books imply
2.6
fantasy pts
SEA D vs TE
12.8
15th most to TEs (2026)
Snap share
76%
Week 1
Target share
10%
Week 1
Scored
5.6
PPR pts

Our Week 1 call

Start Jake Ferguson over Hunter Henry in Week 1.

Hunter Henry is priced by the books at 2.6 projected points and Jake Ferguson is not priced at all, so we are leaning on where drafters take them. Drafters take Jake Ferguson at ADP 143 and Hunter Henry at 171.

What the books imply

No sportsbook posted a player market for Jake Ferguson in Week 1.

Player prop markets imply 2.6 fantasy points for Hunter Henry, with 33 percent of the markets a TE needs posted.

Week 1 matchups

Jake Ferguson and DAL visit NYG.

NYG allowed 8.2 fantasy points to TEs in its one game this season, the 9th fewest in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 32 yards and no touchdowns against NYG.

Hunter Henry and NE visit SEA on Wednesday at 8:20 PM ET.

SEA allowed 12.8 fantasy points to TEs in its one game this season, the 15th most in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 28 yards and a touchdown against SEA.

By points allowed to the position, Hunter Henry has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Jake Ferguson was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Hunter Henry was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Jake Ferguson played 17 games for DAL and scored 188.1 PPR points, 11.1 a game, finishing TE5.

He caught 82 of 102 targets for 600 yards and 8 touchdowns, with 23 red zone targets and 293 air yards.

He was on the field for 67 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Jake Ferguson, Week 18 of 2025 against NYG: 2 targets and 1 catch for 5 yards, 1.5 PPR points.

Jake Ferguson, Week 17 of 2025 against WAS: 27 of 92 snaps, 2 targets and 1 catch for 6 yards, 1 touchdown, 7.6 PPR points.

Jake Ferguson, Week 16 of 2025 against LAC: 40 of 58 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 19 yards, 4.9 PPR points.

In 2025, Hunter Henry played 17 games for NE and scored 178.8 PPR points, 10.5 a game, finishing TE9.

He caught 60 of 87 targets for 768 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 22 red zone targets and 433 air yards.

He was on the field for 81 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Hunter Henry, Week 18 of 2025 against MIA: 5 targets and 5 catches for 56 yards, 10.6 PPR points.

Hunter Henry, Week 17 of 2025 against NYJ: 43 of 66 snaps, 3 targets and 3 catches for 49 yards, 1 touchdown, 13.9 PPR points.

Hunter Henry, Week 16 of 2025 against BAL: 60 of 74 snaps, 7 targets and 6 catches for 35 yards, 1 touchdown, 15.5 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Jake Ferguson scored 2.6 PPR points and Hunter Henry scored 5.6.

The call was wrong: Hunter Henry outscored Jake Ferguson by 3.0.

Jake Ferguson, Week 1 against NYG: 44 of 58 snaps, 2 targets and 2 catches for 6 yards, 2.6 PPR points.

Jake Ferguson finished as the week's TE44 in PPR scoring.

Hunter Henry finished 3.0 points above the 2.6 the props implied.

Hunter Henry, Week 1 against SEA: 54 of 71 snaps, 3 targets and 3 catches for 26 yards, 5.6 PPR points.

Hunter Henry finished as the week's TE25 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

On the draft board

Ranked ahead

TE13 · DAL · bye 14

2025 vs rec yds line 6-11

Overall rank
141
Draft pick
no consensus
Tier
4

Ranked behind

TE14 · NE · bye 11

2025 vs rec yds line 8-9

Overall rank
146
Draft pick
no consensus
Tier
4

The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

The gap between them

  • Spots apart on the board5
  • Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
  • Tiersboth in tier 4
  • Board size244 draftable players

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