Start Justice Hill or Isiah Pacheco? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Justice Hill over Isiah Pacheco
Right: 3.8 to 0.0- Books imply
- 1.1
- fantasy pts
- IND D vs RB
- 39.1
- 3rd most to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 46%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 4%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 3.8
- PPR pts
- NO D vs RB
- 36.4
- 5th most to RBs (2026)
- Scored
- 0.0
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Justice Hill over Isiah Pacheco in Week 1.
Isiah Pacheco is listed inactive on our news wire, so this is not a close call: start Justice Hill. Drafters take Justice Hill at ADP 183 and Isiah Pacheco at 189. Market coverage on Justice Hill is 33 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 1.1 fantasy points for Justice Hill, with 33 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.
No sportsbook posted a player market for Isiah Pacheco in Week 1.
Week 1 matchups
Justice Hill and BAL visit IND on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
IND allowed 39.1 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 3rd most in the league.
Running backs ran for 162 yards and 3 touchdowns against IND and caught passes for 29 more yards.
Isiah Pacheco and DET host NO.
NO allowed 36.4 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 5th most in the league.
Running backs ran for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns against NO and caught passes for 41 more yards.
By points allowed to the position, Justice Hill has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Justice Hill was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Isiah Pacheco was listed as inactive when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Justice Hill played 10 games for BAL and scored 65.2 PPR points, 6.5 a game, finishing RB60.
He ran 18 times for 93 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 21 of 27 targets for 169 yards.
He was on the field for 37 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
In 2025, Isiah Pacheco played 13 games for KC and scored 87.3 PPR points, 6.7 a game, finishing RB56.
He ran 118 times for 462 yards and 1 touchdown, and caught 19 of 26 targets for 101 yards.
He was on the field for 52 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Isiah Pacheco, Week 17 of 2025 against DEN: 15 of 43 snaps, 9 carries for 32 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 3.2 PPR points.
Isiah Pacheco, Week 16 of 2025 against TEN: 33 of 45 snaps, 8 carries for 34 yards, 7 targets and 6 catches for 41 yards, 13.5 PPR points.
Isiah Pacheco, Week 15 of 2025 against LAC: 28 of 61 snaps, 11 carries for 21 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 2.1 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
Justice Hill scored 3.8 PPR points and Isiah Pacheco scored 0.0.
The call was right: Justice Hill outscored Isiah Pacheco by 3.8.
Justice Hill finished 2.7 points above the 1.1 the props implied.
Justice Hill, Week 1 against IND: 31 of 68 snaps, 6 carries for 18 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 10 yards, 3.8 PPR points.
Justice Hill finished as the week's RB51 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
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