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Start Keaton Mitchell or Isiah Pacheco? Week 1

Locks at kickoff, graded after.

Start Keaton Mitchell over Isiah Pacheco

Right: 0.9 to 0.0
Start

Keaton Mitchell

RB · LAC · vs ARI · questionable

Books imply
2.0
fantasy pts
ARI D vs RB
9.2
3rd fewest to RBs (2026)
Snap share
31%
Week 1
Target share
0%
Week 1
Scored
0.9
PPR pts
Sit

Isiah Pacheco

RB · DET · vs NO · inactive

NO D vs RB
36.4
5th most to RBs (2026)
Scored
0.0
PPR pts

Our Week 1 call

Start Keaton Mitchell over Isiah Pacheco in Week 1.

Isiah Pacheco is listed inactive on our news wire, so this is not a close call: start Keaton Mitchell. Drafters take Keaton Mitchell at ADP 182 and Isiah Pacheco at 179. Market coverage on Keaton Mitchell is 33 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

No sportsbook posted a player market for Isiah Pacheco in Week 1.

Player prop markets imply 2.0 fantasy points for Keaton Mitchell, with 33 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

Week 1 matchups

Isiah Pacheco and DET host NO.

NO allowed 36.4 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 5th most in the league.

Running backs ran for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns against NO and caught passes for 41 more yards.

Keaton Mitchell and LAC host ARI on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

ARI allowed 9.2 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 3rd fewest in the league.

Running backs ran for 52 yards and a touchdown against ARI and caught passes for 0 more yards.

By points allowed to the position, Isiah Pacheco has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Isiah Pacheco was listed as inactive when the call was made.

Keaton Mitchell was listed as questionable when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Isiah Pacheco played 13 games for KC and scored 87.3 PPR points, 6.7 a game, finishing RB56.

He ran 118 times for 462 yards and 1 touchdown, and caught 19 of 26 targets for 101 yards.

He was on the field for 52 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Isiah Pacheco, Week 17 of 2025 against DEN: 15 of 43 snaps, 9 carries for 32 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 3.2 PPR points.

Isiah Pacheco, Week 16 of 2025 against TEN: 33 of 45 snaps, 8 carries for 34 yards, 7 targets and 6 catches for 41 yards, 13.5 PPR points.

Isiah Pacheco, Week 15 of 2025 against LAC: 28 of 61 snaps, 11 carries for 21 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 2.1 PPR points.

In 2025, Keaton Mitchell played 13 games for BAL and scored 55.4 PPR points, 4.3 a game, finishing RB67.

He ran 59 times for 341 yards and 1 touchdown, and caught 9 of 12 targets for 63 yards.

He was on the field for 17 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Keaton Mitchell, Week 18 of 2025 against PIT: 2 carries for 2 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 0.2 PPR points.

Keaton Mitchell, Week 17 of 2025 against GB: 14 of 76 snaps, 9 carries for 31 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 7 yards, 5.8 PPR points.

Keaton Mitchell, Week 16 of 2025 against NE: 19 of 55 snaps, 9 carries for 13 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 1.3 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Keaton Mitchell scored 0.9 PPR points and Isiah Pacheco scored 0.0.

The call was right: Keaton Mitchell outscored Isiah Pacheco by 0.9.

Keaton Mitchell finished 1.1 points below the 2.0 the props implied.

Keaton Mitchell, Week 1 against ARI: 17 of 55 snaps, 4 carries for 9 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 0.9 PPR points.

Keaton Mitchell finished as the week's RB69 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

On the draft board

Ranked ahead

RB44 · LAC · bye 7

2025 vs anytime td line 1-12

Overall rank
168
Draft pick
no consensus
Tier
10

Ranked behind

RB56 · DET · bye 6

2025 vs rush yds line 2-11

Overall rank
227
Draft pick
no consensus
Tier
12

The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

The gap between them

  • Spots apart on the board59
  • Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
  • Tierstier 10 and tier 12
  • Board size244 draftable players

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