Start Mark Andrews or Jake Ferguson? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Jake Ferguson over Mark Andrews in Week 1.

De-vigged player props project Jake Ferguson at 3.0 points and Mark Andrews at 2.5, a gap of 0.5. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Drafters take Jake Ferguson at ADP 138 and Mark Andrews at 136. Market coverage on Jake Ferguson is 40 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 2.6 fantasy points for Mark Andrews, with 33 percent of the markets a TE needs posted.

Player prop markets imply 3.1 fantasy points for Jake Ferguson, with 40 percent of the markets a TE needs posted.

That puts Jake Ferguson 0.5 points ahead of Mark Andrews on the books.

Week 1 matchups

Mark Andrews and BAL visit IND on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

IND allowed 12.6 fantasy points to TEs in its one game this season, the 16th most in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 66 yards and no touchdowns against IND.

Jake Ferguson and DAL visit NYG on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

NYG allowed 8.2 fantasy points to TEs in its one game this season, the 9th fewest in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 32 yards and no touchdowns against NYG.

By points allowed to the position, Mark Andrews has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Mark Andrews was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Jake Ferguson was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Mark Andrews played 17 games for BAL and scored 131.0 PPR points, 7.7 a game, finishing TE16.

He caught 48 of 70 targets for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns, with 14 red zone targets and 321 air yards.

He was on the field for 62 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Mark Andrews, Week 18 of 2025 against PIT: 3 targets and 2 catches for 14 yards, 3.4 PPR points.

Mark Andrews, Week 17 of 2025 against GB: 31 of 76 snaps, 4 targets and 4 catches for 28 yards, 6.8 PPR points.

Mark Andrews, Week 16 of 2025 against NE: 24 of 55 snaps, 1 carry for 3 yards, 3 targets and 2 catches for 21 yards, 4.4 PPR points.

In 2025, Jake Ferguson played 17 games for DAL and scored 188.1 PPR points, 11.1 a game, finishing TE5.

He caught 82 of 102 targets for 600 yards and 8 touchdowns, with 23 red zone targets and 293 air yards.

He was on the field for 67 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Jake Ferguson, Week 18 of 2025 against NYG: 2 targets and 1 catch for 5 yards, 1.5 PPR points.

Jake Ferguson, Week 17 of 2025 against WAS: 27 of 92 snaps, 2 targets and 1 catch for 6 yards, 1 touchdown, 7.6 PPR points.

Jake Ferguson, Week 16 of 2025 against LAC: 40 of 58 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 19 yards, 4.9 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Jake Ferguson scored 2.6 PPR points and Mark Andrews scored 8.9.

The call was wrong: Mark Andrews outscored Jake Ferguson by 6.3.

Jake Ferguson finished 0.4 points below the 3.1 the props implied.

Jake Ferguson, Week 1 against NYG: 44 of 58 snaps, 2 targets and 2 catches for 6 yards, 2.6 PPR points.

Jake Ferguson finished as the week's TE44 in PPR scoring.

Mark Andrews finished 6.4 points above the 2.6 the props implied.

Mark Andrews, Week 1 against IND: 49 of 68 snaps, 6 targets and 4 catches for 49 yards, 8.9 PPR points.

Mark Andrews finished as the week's TE20 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Dallas Goedert over Mark Andrews.
• Start Dalton Kincaid over Mark Andrews.
• Start Mark Andrews over David Njoku.
• Start Dallas Goedert over Jake Ferguson.
• Start Dalton Kincaid over Jake Ferguson.
• Start George Kittle over Jake Ferguson.