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Start Jaxson Dart or Justin Herbert? Week 1

Locks at kickoff, graded after.

Start Justin Herbert over Jaxson Dart

Wrong: 14.3 to 26.6
Start

Justin Herbert

QB · LAC · vs ARI

Books imply
9.4
fantasy pts
ARI D vs QB
14.3
11th fewest to QBs (2026)
Snap share
100%
Week 1
Scored
14.3
PPR pts
Sit

Jaxson Dart

QB · NYG · vs DAL

DAL D vs QB
26.6
4th most to QBs (2026)
Snap share
100%
Week 1
Scored
26.6
PPR pts

Our Week 1 call

Start Justin Herbert over Jaxson Dart in Week 1.

Justin Herbert is priced by the books at 9.4 projected points. Jaxson Dart has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Justin Herbert at ADP 105 and Jaxson Dart at 121. Market coverage on Justin Herbert is 45 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 9.4 fantasy points for Justin Herbert, with 45 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

No sportsbook posted a player market for Jaxson Dart in Week 1.

Week 1 matchups

Justin Herbert and LAC host ARI on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

ARI allowed 14.3 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 11th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 209 yards and a touchdown against ARI, with an interception.

Jaxson Dart and NYG host DAL.

DAL allowed 26.6 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 4th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 230 yards and 3 touchdowns against DAL, with no interceptions.

By points allowed to the position, Jaxson Dart has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Justin Herbert was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Jaxson Dart was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Justin Herbert played 16 games for LAC and scored 299.9 PPR points, 18.7 a game, finishing QB10.

He completed 340 of 512 passes for 3727 yards, 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 498 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Justin Herbert, Week 17 of 2025 against HOU: 63 of 63 snaps, 21 of 32 passes for 236 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 6 carries for 37 yards, 16.1 PPR points.

Justin Herbert, Week 16 of 2025 against DAL: 64 of 64 snaps, 23 of 29 passes for 300 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 8 carries for 42 yards, 30.2 PPR points.

Justin Herbert, Week 15 of 2025 against KC: 66 of 66 snaps, 19 of 29 passes for 210 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 0 yards, 11.4 PPR points.

In 2025, Jaxson Dart played 14 games for NYG and scored 246.6 PPR points, 17.6 a game, finishing QB14.

He completed 216 of 339 passes for 2272 yards, 15 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and ran 86 times for 487 yards and 9 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 76 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Jaxson Dart, Week 18 of 2025 against DAL: 22 of 32 passes for 230 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 5 carries for 32 yards, 20.4 PPR points.

Jaxson Dart, Week 17 of 2025 against LV: 64 of 64 snaps, 22 of 30 passes for 207 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 9 carries for 48 yards, 25.1 PPR points.

Jaxson Dart, Week 16 of 2025 against MIN: 56 of 56 snaps, 7 of 13 passes for 33 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 7 yards, 1.0 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Justin Herbert scored 14.3 PPR points and Jaxson Dart scored 26.6.

The call was wrong: Jaxson Dart outscored Justin Herbert by 12.3.

Justin Herbert finished 4.9 points above the 9.4 the props implied.

Justin Herbert, Week 1 against ARI: 55 of 55 snaps, 17 of 27 passes for 209 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 5 carries for 29 yards, 14.3 PPR points.

Justin Herbert finished as the week's QB22 in PPR scoring.

Jaxson Dart, Week 1 against DAL: 69 of 69 snaps, 23 of 29 passes for 230 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 11 carries for 54 yards, 26.6 PPR points.

Jaxson Dart finished as the week's QB4 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

On the draft board

Ranked ahead

QB17 · NYG · bye 8

2025 vs pass td line 5-7

Overall rank
40
Draft pick
no consensus
Tier
1

Ranked behind

QB26 · LAC · bye 7

2025 vs pass yds line 6-10

Overall rank
74
Draft pick
no consensus
Tier
4

The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

The gap between them

  • Spots apart on the board34
  • Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
  • Tierstier 1 and tier 4
  • Board size244 draftable players

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