Start Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Trevor Lawrence over Justin Herbert in Week 1.

Trevor Lawrence is priced by the books at 9.3 projected points. Justin Herbert has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Trevor Lawrence at ADP 95 and Justin Herbert at 105. Market coverage on Trevor Lawrence is 45 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 9.3 fantasy points for Trevor Lawrence, with 45 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

No sportsbook posted a player market for Justin Herbert in Week 1.

Week 1 matchups

Trevor Lawrence and JAX host CLE on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CLE allowed 25.8 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 5th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 245 yards and 4 touchdowns against CLE, with no interceptions.

Justin Herbert and LAC host ARI.

ARI allowed 14.3 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 11th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 209 yards and a touchdown against ARI, with an interception.

By points allowed to the position, Trevor Lawrence has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Trevor Lawrence was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Justin Herbert was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Trevor Lawrence played 17 games for JAX and scored 350.2 PPR points, 20.6 a game, finishing QB4.

He completed 341 of 560 passes for 4007 yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and ran 82 times for 359 yards and 9 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 18 of 2025 against TEN: 22 of 30 passes for 255 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 11 yards, 23.3 PPR points.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 17 of 2025 against IND: 69 of 69 snaps, 23 of 37 passes for 263 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 8 carries for 26 yards, 24.1 PPR points.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 16 of 2025 against DEN: 70 of 70 snaps, 23 of 36 passes for 279 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 6 carries for 20 yards, 31.2 PPR points.

In 2025, Justin Herbert played 16 games for LAC and scored 299.9 PPR points, 18.7 a game, finishing QB10.

He completed 340 of 512 passes for 3727 yards, 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 498 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Justin Herbert, Week 17 of 2025 against HOU: 63 of 63 snaps, 21 of 32 passes for 236 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 6 carries for 37 yards, 16.1 PPR points.

Justin Herbert, Week 16 of 2025 against DAL: 64 of 64 snaps, 23 of 29 passes for 300 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 8 carries for 42 yards, 30.2 PPR points.

Justin Herbert, Week 15 of 2025 against KC: 66 of 66 snaps, 19 of 29 passes for 210 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 0 yards, 11.4 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Trevor Lawrence scored 26.1 PPR points and Justin Herbert scored 14.3.

The call was right: Trevor Lawrence outscored Justin Herbert by 11.8.

Trevor Lawrence finished 16.8 points above the 9.3 the props implied.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 1 against CLE: 50 of 57 snaps, 18 of 23 passes for 245 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 3 yards, 26.1 PPR points.

Trevor Lawrence finished as the week's QB5 in PPR scoring.

Justin Herbert, Week 1 against ARI: 55 of 55 snaps, 17 of 27 passes for 209 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 5 carries for 29 yards, 14.3 PPR points.

Justin Herbert finished as the week's QB22 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Trevor Lawrence over Bo Nix.
• Start Brock Purdy over Trevor Lawrence.
• Start Caleb Williams over Trevor Lawrence.
• Start Justin Herbert over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Justin Herbert over Bo Nix.
• Start Brock Purdy over Justin Herbert.