Start Tyler Allgeier or Kaelon Black? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Tyler Allgeier over Kaelon Black
Right: 9.0 to 8.0
- Books imply
- 2.1
- fantasy pts
- LAC D vs RB
- 22.0
- 15th fewest to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 59%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 5%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 9.0
- PPR pts
- LAR D vs RB
- 21.8
- 14th fewest to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 43%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 3%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 8.0
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Tyler Allgeier over Kaelon Black in Week 1.
Tyler Allgeier is priced by the books at 2.1 projected points. Kaelon Black has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Tyler Allgeier at ADP 169 and Kaelon Black at 178. Market coverage on Tyler Allgeier is 33 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 2.1 fantasy points for Tyler Allgeier, with 33 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.
No sportsbook posted a player market for Kaelon Black in Week 1.
Week 1 matchups
Tyler Allgeier and ARI visit LAC on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.
LAC allowed 22.0 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 15th fewest in the league.
Running backs ran for 102 yards and a touchdown against LAC and caught passes for 18 more yards.
Kaelon Black and SF visit LAR.
LAR allowed 21.8 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 14th fewest in the league.
Running backs ran for 133 yards and no touchdowns against LAR and caught passes for 25 more yards.
By points allowed to the position, Tyler Allgeier has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Tyler Allgeier was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Kaelon Black was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Tyler Allgeier played 17 games for ATL and scored 123.0 PPR points, 7.2 a game, finishing RB39.
He ran 143 times for 514 yards and 8 touchdowns, and caught 14 of 16 targets for 96 yards.
He was on the field for 30 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Tyler Allgeier, Week 18 of 2025 against NO: 7 carries for 16 yards, 2 targets and 1 catch for 3 yards, 2.9 PPR points.
Tyler Allgeier, Week 17 of 2025 against LAR: 19 of 53 snaps, 10 carries for 23 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 2.3 PPR points.
Tyler Allgeier, Week 16 of 2025 against ARI: 31 of 77 snaps, 16 carries for 79 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for -6 yards, 8.3 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
Tyler Allgeier scored 9.0 PPR points and Kaelon Black scored 8.0.
The call was right: Tyler Allgeier outscored Kaelon Black by 1.0.
Tyler Allgeier finished 6.9 points above the 2.1 the props implied.
Tyler Allgeier, Week 1 against LAC: 44 of 75 snaps, 17 carries for 61 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 9 yards, 9.0 PPR points.
Tyler Allgeier finished as the week's RB29 in PPR scoring.
Kaelon Black, Week 1 against LAR: 28 of 65 snaps, 14 carries for 65 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 5 yards, 8.0 PPR points.
Kaelon Black finished as the week's RB35 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
RB38 · ARI · bye 14
2025 vs rush yds line 8-9
- Overall rank
- 130
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 9
Ranked behind
RB57 · SF · bye 8
- Overall rank
- 231
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 12
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board101
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tierstier 9 and tier 12
- Board size244 draftable players
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