Start Kaelon Black or Dylan Sampson? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Dylan Sampson over Kaelon Black
Wrong: 0.0 to 8.0
- Books imply
- 0.9
- fantasy pts
- JAX D vs RB
- 12.6
- 8th fewest to RBs (2026)
- Scored
- 0.0
- PPR pts
- LAR D vs RB
- 21.8
- 14th fewest to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 43%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 3%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 8.0
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Dylan Sampson over Kaelon Black in Week 1.
Dylan Sampson is priced by the books at 0.9 projected points. Kaelon Black has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Dylan Sampson at ADP 184 and Kaelon Black at 202. Market coverage on Dylan Sampson is 33 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 0.9 fantasy points for Dylan Sampson, with 33 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.
No sportsbook posted a player market for Kaelon Black in Week 1.
Week 1 matchups
Dylan Sampson and CLE visit JAX on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
JAX allowed 12.6 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 8th fewest in the league.
Running backs ran for 34 yards and no touchdowns against JAX and caught passes for 42 more yards.
Kaelon Black and SF visit LAR.
LAR allowed 21.8 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 14th fewest in the league.
Running backs ran for 133 yards and no touchdowns against LAR and caught passes for 25 more yards.
By points allowed to the position, Kaelon Black has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Dylan Sampson was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Kaelon Black was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Dylan Sampson played 15 games for CLE and scored 87.6 PPR points, 5.8 a game, finishing RB55.
He ran 65 times for 175 yards and 0 touchdowns, and caught 33 of 40 targets for 271 yards.
He was on the field for 25 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Dylan Sampson, Week 18 of 2025 against CIN: 10 carries for 32 yards, 3 targets and 2 catches for 12 yards, 6.4 PPR points.
Dylan Sampson, Week 17 of 2025 against PIT: 18 of 52 snaps, 11 carries for 27 yards, 3 targets and 3 catches for 0 yards, 5.7 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
Dylan Sampson scored 0.0 PPR points and Kaelon Black scored 8.0.
The call was wrong: Kaelon Black outscored Dylan Sampson by 8.0.
Dylan Sampson finished 0.9 points below the 0.9 the props implied.
Dylan Sampson, Week 1 against JAX: 0 carries for 0 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards.
Kaelon Black, Week 1 against LAR: 28 of 65 snaps, 14 carries for 65 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 5 yards, 8.0 PPR points.
Kaelon Black finished as the week's RB35 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
RB57 · SF · bye 8
- Overall rank
- 231
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 12
Ranked behind
RB58 · CLE · bye 11
2025 vs anytime td line 2-13
- Overall rank
- 239
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 13
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board8
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tierstier 12 and tier 13
- Board size244 draftable players
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