Start Brian Robinson or Kaelon Black? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Brian Robinson over Kaelon Black
Wrong: 3.1 to 8.0
- Books imply
- 1.4
- fantasy pts
- PIT D vs RB
- 34.4
- 6th most to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 25%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 0%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 3.1
- PPR pts
- LAR D vs RB
- 21.8
- 14th fewest to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 43%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 3%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 8.0
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Brian Robinson over Kaelon Black in Week 1.
Brian Robinson is priced by the books at 1.4 projected points. Kaelon Black has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Brian Robinson at ADP 191 and Kaelon Black at 202. Market coverage on Brian Robinson is 33 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 1.4 fantasy points for Brian Robinson, with 33 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.
No sportsbook posted a player market for Kaelon Black in Week 1.
Week 1 matchups
Brian Robinson and ATL visit PIT on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
PIT allowed 34.4 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 6th most in the league.
Running backs ran for 114 yards and no touchdowns against PIT and caught passes for 90 more yards.
Kaelon Black and SF visit LAR.
LAR allowed 21.8 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 14th fewest in the league.
Running backs ran for 133 yards and no touchdowns against LAR and caught passes for 25 more yards.
By points allowed to the position, Brian Robinson has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Brian Robinson was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Kaelon Black was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Brian Robinson played 17 games for SF and scored 62.5 PPR points, 3.7 a game, finishing RB63.
He ran 92 times for 400 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 8 of 12 targets for 25 yards.
He was on the field for 17 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Brian Robinson, Week 18 of 2025 against SEA: 6 of 42 snaps, 2 carries for 9 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 0.9 PPR points.
Brian Robinson, Week 17 of 2025 against CHI: 11 of 72 snaps, 4 carries for 22 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 6 yards, 3.8 PPR points.
Brian Robinson, Week 16 of 2025 against IND: 10 of 66 snaps, 5 carries for 20 yards, 1 target and 0 catches for 0 yards, 2.0 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
Brian Robinson scored 3.1 PPR points and Kaelon Black scored 8.0.
The call was wrong: Kaelon Black outscored Brian Robinson by 4.9.
Brian Robinson finished 1.7 points above the 1.4 the props implied.
Brian Robinson, Week 1 against PIT: 15 of 60 snaps, 9 carries for 31 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 3.1 PPR points.
Brian Robinson finished as the week's RB55 in PPR scoring.
Kaelon Black, Week 1 against LAR: 28 of 65 snaps, 14 carries for 65 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 5 yards, 8.0 PPR points.
Kaelon Black finished as the week's RB35 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
RB45 · ATL · bye 11
2025 vs rush yds line 7-10
- Overall rank
- 169
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 10
Ranked behind
RB57 · SF · bye 8
- Overall rank
- 231
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 12
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board62
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tierstier 10 and tier 12
- Board size244 draftable players
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