Start Chris Rodriguez Jr. or Kaelon Black? Week 1
Locked at kickoff. Graded after.
Start Chris Rodriguez Jr. over Kaelon Black
Wrong: 2.3 to 8.0
- Books implied
- 3.8
- pre-game
- CLE D vs RB
- 16.3
- 11th fewest to RBs (2026)
- Scored
- 2.3
- PPR pts
- LAR D vs RB
- 21.8
- 14th fewest to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 43%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 3%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 8.0
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Chris Rodriguez Jr. over Kaelon Black in Week 1.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. is priced by the books at 3.8 projected points. Kaelon Black has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Chris Rodriguez Jr. at ADP 165 and Kaelon Black at 178. Market coverage on Chris Rodriguez Jr. is 40 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 3.8 fantasy points for Chris Rodriguez Jr., with 40 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.
No sportsbook posted a player market for Kaelon Black in Week 1.
Week 1 matchups
Chris Rodriguez Jr. and JAX host CLE on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
CLE allowed 16.3 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 11th fewest in the league.
Running backs ran for 121 yards and no touchdowns against CLE and caught passes for 22 more yards.
Kaelon Black and SF visit LAR.
LAR allowed 21.8 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 14th fewest in the league.
Running backs ran for 133 yards and no touchdowns against LAR and caught passes for 25 more yards.
By points allowed to the position, Kaelon Black has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Chris Rodriguez Jr. was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Kaelon Black was not on the injury report when the call was made.
How Week 1 went
Chris Rodriguez Jr. scored 2.3 PPR points and Kaelon Black scored 8.0.
The call was wrong: Kaelon Black outscored Chris Rodriguez Jr. by 5.7.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. finished 1.5 points below the 3.8 the props implied.
Chris Rodriguez Jr., Week 1 against CLE: 23 of 57 snaps, 6 carries for 23 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 2.3 PPR points.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. finished as the week's RB62 in PPR scoring.
Kaelon Black, Week 1 against LAR: 28 of 65 snaps, 14 carries for 65 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 5 yards, 8.0 PPR points.
Kaelon Black finished as the week's RB35 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
RB45 · JAX · bye 7
2025 vs anytime td line 6-7
- Overall rank
- 149
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 10
Ranked behind
RB57 · SF · bye 8
- Overall rank
- 229
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 14
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. This call locked at kickoff and was not edited after. It is on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board80
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tierstier 10 and tier 14
- Board size242 draftable players
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