Start Tyler Allgeier or Keaton Mitchell? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Keaton Mitchell over Tyler Allgeier in Week 1.

De-vigged player props project Keaton Mitchell at 2.8 points and Tyler Allgeier at 2.1, a gap of 0.8. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Drafters take Keaton Mitchell at ADP 166 and Tyler Allgeier at 169. Market coverage on Keaton Mitchell is 60 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 2.8 fantasy points for Keaton Mitchell, with 60 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

Player prop markets imply 2.1 fantasy points for Tyler Allgeier, with 33 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

That puts Keaton Mitchell 0.8 points ahead of Tyler Allgeier on the books.

Week 1 matchups

Keaton Mitchell and LAC host ARI on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

ARI allowed 9.2 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 3rd fewest in the league.

Running backs ran for 52 yards and a touchdown against ARI and caught passes for 0 more yards.

Tyler Allgeier and ARI visit LAC on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

LAC allowed 22.0 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 15th fewest in the league.

Running backs ran for 102 yards and a touchdown against LAC and caught passes for 18 more yards.

By points allowed to the position, Tyler Allgeier has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Keaton Mitchell was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Tyler Allgeier was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Keaton Mitchell played 13 games for BAL and scored 55.4 PPR points, 4.3 a game, finishing RB67.

He ran 59 times for 341 yards and 1 touchdown, and caught 9 of 12 targets for 63 yards.

He was on the field for 17 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Keaton Mitchell, Week 18 of 2025 against PIT: 2 carries for 2 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 0.2 PPR points.

Keaton Mitchell, Week 17 of 2025 against GB: 14 of 76 snaps, 9 carries for 31 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 7 yards, 5.8 PPR points.

Keaton Mitchell, Week 16 of 2025 against NE: 19 of 55 snaps, 9 carries for 13 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 1.3 PPR points.

In 2025, Tyler Allgeier played 17 games for ATL and scored 123.0 PPR points, 7.2 a game, finishing RB39.

He ran 143 times for 514 yards and 8 touchdowns, and caught 14 of 16 targets for 96 yards.

He was on the field for 30 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Tyler Allgeier, Week 18 of 2025 against NO: 7 carries for 16 yards, 2 targets and 1 catch for 3 yards, 2.9 PPR points.

Tyler Allgeier, Week 17 of 2025 against LAR: 19 of 53 snaps, 10 carries for 23 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 2.3 PPR points.

Tyler Allgeier, Week 16 of 2025 against ARI: 31 of 77 snaps, 16 carries for 79 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for -6 yards, 8.3 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Keaton Mitchell scored 0.9 PPR points and Tyler Allgeier scored 9.0.

The call was wrong: Tyler Allgeier outscored Keaton Mitchell by 8.1.

Keaton Mitchell finished 1.9 points below the 2.8 the props implied.

Keaton Mitchell, Week 1 against ARI: 17 of 55 snaps, 4 carries for 9 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 0.9 PPR points.

Keaton Mitchell finished as the week's RB69 in PPR scoring.

Tyler Allgeier finished 6.9 points above the 2.1 the props implied.

Tyler Allgeier, Week 1 against LAC: 44 of 75 snaps, 17 carries for 61 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 9 yards, 9.0 PPR points.

Tyler Allgeier finished as the week's RB29 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Alvin Kamara over Keaton Mitchell.
• Start Keaton Mitchell over Braelon Allen.
• Start Keaton Mitchell over Brian Robinson.
• Start Tyler Allgeier over Alvin Kamara.
• Start Tyler Allgeier over Braelon Allen.
• Start Chris Rodriguez Jr. over Tyler Allgeier.