Start Tyler Shough or Kyler Murray? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Kyler Murray over Tyler Shough in Week 1.

Kyler Murray is priced by the books at 9.4 projected points. Tyler Shough has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Kyler Murray at ADP 132 and Tyler Shough at 139. Market coverage on Kyler Murray is 55 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 9.4 fantasy points for Kyler Murray, with 55 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

No sportsbook posted a player market for Tyler Shough in Week 1.

Week 1 matchups

Kyler Murray and MIN host GB on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

GB allowed 19.8 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 12th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 151 yards and 3 touchdowns against GB, with an interception.

Tyler Shough and NO visit DET.

DET allowed 25.2 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 6th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 410 yards and 3 touchdowns against DET, with 2 interceptions.

By points allowed to the position, Tyler Shough has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Kyler Murray was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Tyler Shough was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Kyler Murray played 5 games for ARI and scored 80.8 PPR points, 16.2 a game, finishing QB38.

He completed 110 of 161 passes for 962 yards, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and ran 29 times for 173 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Tyler Shough played 11 games for NO and scored 164.0 PPR points, 14.9 a game, finishing QB26.

He completed 221 of 327 passes for 2384 yards, 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and ran 45 times for 186 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 51 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Tyler Shough, Week 18 of 2025 against ATL: 23 of 35 passes for 259 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 3 carries for 34 yards, 22.8 PPR points.

Tyler Shough, Week 17 of 2025 against TEN: 53 of 54 snaps, 22 of 27 passes for 333 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 6 yards, 21.9 PPR points.

Tyler Shough, Week 16 of 2025 against NYJ: 76 of 78 snaps, 32 of 49 passes for 308 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 8 yards, 17.1 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Kyler Murray scored 0.6 PPR points and Tyler Shough scored 25.2.

The call was wrong: Tyler Shough outscored Kyler Murray by 24.6.

Kyler Murray finished 8.8 points below the 9.4 the props implied.

Kyler Murray, Week 1 against GB: 11 of 65 snaps, 3 of 5 passes for 18 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 9 yards, 0.6 PPR points.

Kyler Murray finished as the week's QB35 in PPR scoring.

Tyler Shough, Week 1 against DET: 90 of 90 snaps, 35 of 56 passes for 410 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 4 carries for 8 yards, 25.2 PPR points.

Tyler Shough finished as the week's QB6 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Baker Mayfield over Kyler Murray.
• Start Bo Nix over Kyler Murray.
• Start Jaxson Dart over Kyler Murray.
• Start Baker Mayfield over Tyler Shough.
• Start Tyler Shough over C.J. Stroud.
• Start Tyler Shough over Daniel Jones.