Start Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Baker Mayfield over Kyler Murray in Week 1.

Kyler Murray is priced by the books at 8.0 projected points and Baker Mayfield is not priced at all, so we are leaning on where drafters take them. Drafters take Baker Mayfield at ADP 126 and Kyler Murray at 128.

What the books imply

No sportsbook posted a player market for Baker Mayfield in Week 1.

Player prop markets imply 8.0 fantasy points for Kyler Murray, with 25 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

Week 1 matchups

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CIN.

CIN allowed 11.6 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 6th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 216 yards and no touchdowns against CIN, with no interceptions.

Kyler Murray and MIN host GB on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

GB allowed 19.8 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 12th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 151 yards and 3 touchdowns against GB, with an interception.

By points allowed to the position, Kyler Murray has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Baker Mayfield was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Kyler Murray was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Baker Mayfield, Week 18 of 2025 against CAR: 67 of 67 snaps, 16 of 22 passes for 203 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 31 yards, 14.2 PPR points.

Baker Mayfield, Week 17 of 2025 against MIA: 67 of 67 snaps, 33 of 44 passes for 346 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 3 carries for 16 yards, 19.4 PPR points.

Baker Mayfield, Week 16 of 2025 against CAR: 64 of 64 snaps, 18 of 26 passes for 145 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 49 yards, 13.7 PPR points.

In 2025, Kyler Murray played 5 games for ARI and scored 80.8 PPR points, 16.2 a game, finishing QB38.

He completed 110 of 161 passes for 962 yards, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and ran 29 times for 173 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

How Week 1 went

Baker Mayfield scored 11.6 PPR points and Kyler Murray scored 0.6.

The call was right: Baker Mayfield outscored Kyler Murray by 11.0.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 5 carries for 30 yards, 11.6 PPR points.

Baker Mayfield finished as the week's QB27 in PPR scoring.

Kyler Murray finished 7.4 points below the 8.0 the props implied.

Kyler Murray, Week 1 against GB: 11 of 65 snaps, 3 of 5 passes for 18 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 9 yards, 0.6 PPR points.

Kyler Murray finished as the week's QB35 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Jaxson Dart over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Baker Mayfield over Jordan Love.
• Start Bo Nix over Kyler Murray.
• Start Jaxson Dart over Kyler Murray.
• Start Kyler Murray over Jordan Love.