Start Michael Penix Jr. or Marcus Mariota? Week 3
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Marcus Mariota over Michael Penix Jr.
- Books imply
- 11.9
- fantasy pts
- Snap share
- 45%
- Through Week 2
- Books imply
- 10.4
- fantasy pts
Our Week 3 call
Start Marcus Mariota over Michael Penix Jr. in Week 3.
De-vigged player props project Marcus Mariota at 11.9 points and Michael Penix Jr. at 10.4, a gap of 1.4. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 11.9 fantasy points for Marcus Mariota, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.
The books have Marcus Mariota at 172.5 passing yards, with a 13% chance to score a touchdown (13 and 14 books).
Player prop markets imply 10.5 fantasy points for Michael Penix Jr., with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.
The books have Michael Penix Jr. at 205.5 passing yards, 0.5 passing touchdowns and 4.5 rushing yards, with a 8% chance to score a touchdown (17, 18, 15 and 18 books).
That puts Marcus Mariota 1.4 points ahead of Michael Penix Jr. on the books.
Injury status
Marcus Mariota is not on the injury report.
Michael Penix Jr. is not on the injury report.
Usage before Week 3
Through Week 2, Marcus Mariota played 45 percent of WAS snaps, dropped back 17 times and threw an average of 11.7 air yards per attempt.
Marcus Mariota, Week 2 against DAL: 32 of 71 snaps, 11 of 16 passes for 111 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 3 yards.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Marcus Mariota played 11 games for WAS and scored 132.5 PPR points, 12.0 a game, finishing QB32.
He completed 139 of 227 passes for 1695 yards, 10 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and ran 50 times for 297 yards and 1 touchdown.
He was on the field for 54 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Marcus Mariota, Week 16 of 2025 against PHI: 32 of 54 snaps, 7 of 14 passes for 95 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for -1 yards, 3.7 PPR points.
Marcus Mariota, Week 15 of 2025 against NYG: 61 of 61 snaps, 10 of 19 passes for 211 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 10 carries for 43 yards, 14.7 PPR points.
Their other Week 3 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
QB31 · ATL · bye 11
2025 vs pass yds line 4-5
- Overall rank
- 146
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 7
Ranked behind
QB · WAS · bye unlisted
2025 vs anytime td line 1-10
- Overall rank
- not on the board
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- not tiered
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 3, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the boardone of them is not on the board
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tiersnot tiered
- Board size227 draftable players
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