Start Kyler Murray or Baker Mayfield? Week 3

Our Week 3 call

Start Kyler Murray over Baker Mayfield in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project Kyler Murray at 14.4 points and Baker Mayfield at 14.1, a gap of 0.3. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 14.4 fantasy points for Kyler Murray, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Kyler Murray at 208.5 passing yards and 20.5 rushing yards, with a 20% chance to score a touchdown (13, 13 and 15 books).

Player prop markets imply 14.1 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Baker Mayfield at 216.5 passing yards and 16.5 rushing yards, with a 14% chance to score a touchdown (11, 13 and 15 books).

That puts Kyler Murray 0.3 points ahead of Baker Mayfield on the books.

Injury status

Kyler Murray is not on the injury report.

Baker Mayfield is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 1, Kyler Murray played 17 percent of MIN snaps, dropped back 7 times and threw an average of 7.0 air yards per attempt.

Kyler Murray, Week 1 against GB: 11 of 65 snaps, 3 of 5 passes for 18 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 9 yards.

Through Week 2, Baker Mayfield played 100 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 76 times and threw an average of 9.1 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Kyler Murray played 5 games for ARI and scored 80.8 PPR points, 16.2 a game, finishing QB38.

He completed 110 of 161 passes for 962 yards, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and ran 29 times for 173 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Baker Mayfield, Week 18 of 2025 against CAR: 67 of 67 snaps, 16 of 22 passes for 203 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 31 yards, 14.2 PPR points.

Their other Week 3 calls

• Start Kyler Murray over Bo Nix.
• Start Bryce Young over Kyler Murray.
• Start Kyler Murray over C.J. Stroud.
• Start Baker Mayfield over Aaron Rodgers.
• Start Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Baker Mayfield over Cam Ward.