Start Justice Hill or Kaelon Black? Week 1
Locked at kickoff. Graded after.
Start Justice Hill over Kaelon Black
Wrong: 3.8 to 8.0- Books implied
- 4.7
- pre-game
- IND D vs RB
- 39.1
- 3rd most to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 46%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 4%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 3.8
- PPR pts
- LAR D vs RB
- 21.8
- 14th fewest to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 43%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 3%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 8.0
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Justice Hill over Kaelon Black in Week 1.
Justice Hill is priced by the books at 4.7 projected points. Kaelon Black has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Justice Hill at ADP 202 and Kaelon Black at 208.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 4.7 fantasy points for Justice Hill, with 100 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.
No sportsbook posted a player market for Kaelon Black in Week 1.
Week 1 matchups
Justice Hill and BAL visit IND on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
IND allowed 39.1 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 3rd most in the league.
Running backs ran for 162 yards and 3 touchdowns against IND and caught passes for 29 more yards.
Kaelon Black and SF visit LAR.
LAR allowed 21.8 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 14th fewest in the league.
Running backs ran for 133 yards and no touchdowns against LAR and caught passes for 25 more yards.
By points allowed to the position, Justice Hill has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Justice Hill was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Kaelon Black was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Justice Hill played 10 games for BAL and scored 65.2 PPR points, 6.5 a game, finishing RB60.
He ran 18 times for 93 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 21 of 27 targets for 169 yards.
He was on the field for 37 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
How Week 1 went
Justice Hill scored 3.8 PPR points and Kaelon Black scored 8.0.
The call was wrong: Kaelon Black outscored Justice Hill by 4.2.
Justice Hill finished 0.9 points below the 4.7 the props implied.
Justice Hill, Week 1 against IND: 31 of 68 snaps, 6 carries for 18 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 10 yards, 3.8 PPR points.
Justice Hill finished as the week's RB51 in PPR scoring.
Kaelon Black, Week 1 against LAR: 28 of 65 snaps, 14 carries for 65 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 5 yards, 8.0 PPR points.
Kaelon Black finished as the week's RB35 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. This call locked at kickoff and was not edited after. It is on the public record, wrong ones included.
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