Start Caleb Williams or Jared Goff? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Caleb Williams over Jared Goff in Week 1.

Caleb Williams is priced by the books at 8.4 projected points. Jared Goff has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Caleb Williams at ADP 84 and Jared Goff at 102. Market coverage on Caleb Williams is 25 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 8.4 fantasy points for Caleb Williams, with 25 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

No sportsbook posted a player market for Jared Goff in Week 1.

Week 1 matchups

Caleb Williams and CHI visit CAR on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CAR allowed 37.3 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 269 yards and 2 touchdowns against CAR, with no interceptions.

Jared Goff and DET host NO.

NO allowed 16.4 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 16th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 206 yards and 2 touchdowns against NO, with no interceptions.

By points allowed to the position, Caleb Williams has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Caleb Williams was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Jared Goff was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Caleb Williams played 17 games for CHI and scored 325.2 PPR points, 19.1 a game, finishing QB5.

He completed 330 of 568 passes for 3942 yards, 27 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and ran 77 times for 383 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Caleb Williams, Week 18 of 2025 against DET: 20 of 33 passes for 212 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 1 yards, 17.6 PPR points.

Caleb Williams, Week 17 of 2025 against SF: 66 of 66 snaps, 25 of 42 passes for 330 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 5 carries for 18 yards, 23.0 PPR points.

Caleb Williams, Week 16 of 2025 against GB: 64 of 64 snaps, 19 of 34 passes for 250 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 30 yards, 21.0 PPR points.

In 2025, Jared Goff played 17 games for DET and scored 305.1 PPR points, 17.9 a game, finishing QB9.

He completed 393 of 578 passes for 4564 yards, 34 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran 19 times for 45 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Jared Goff, Week 18 of 2025 against CHI: 27 of 42 passes for 331 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 16.2 PPR points.

Jared Goff, Week 17 of 2025 against MIN: 64 of 64 snaps, 18 of 29 passes for 197 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 3 carries for 2 yards, 4.1 PPR points.

Jared Goff, Week 16 of 2025 against PIT: 74 of 74 snaps, 34 of 54 passes for 364 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for -1 yards, 26.5 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Caleb Williams scored 37.3 PPR points and Jared Goff scored 16.4.

The call was right: Caleb Williams outscored Jared Goff by 20.8.

Caleb Williams finished 28.9 points above the 8.4 the props implied.

Caleb Williams, Week 1 against CAR: 75 of 75 snaps, 21 of 29 passes for 269 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 10 carries for 65 yards, 37.3 PPR points.

Caleb Williams finished as the week's QB1 in PPR scoring.

Jared Goff, Week 1 against NO: 77 of 77 snaps, 26 of 39 passes for 206 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 2 yards, 16.4 PPR points.

Jared Goff finished as the week's QB17 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Brock Purdy over Caleb Williams.
• Start Dak Prescott over Caleb Williams.
• Start Caleb Williams over Jalen Hurts.
• Start Bo Nix over Jared Goff.
• Start Brock Purdy over Jared Goff.
• Start Justin Herbert over Jared Goff.