Start Justin Herbert or Jared Goff? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Justin Herbert over Jared Goff in Week 1.

Justin Herbert is priced by the books at 9.4 projected points. Jared Goff has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Justin Herbert at ADP 105 and Jared Goff at 102. Market coverage on Justin Herbert is 45 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

No sportsbook posted a player market for Jared Goff in Week 1.

Player prop markets imply 9.4 fantasy points for Justin Herbert, with 45 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

Week 1 matchups

Jared Goff and DET host NO.

NO allowed 16.4 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 16th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 206 yards and 2 touchdowns against NO, with no interceptions.

Justin Herbert and LAC host ARI on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

ARI allowed 14.3 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 11th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 209 yards and a touchdown against ARI, with an interception.

By points allowed to the position, Jared Goff has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Jared Goff was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Justin Herbert was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Jared Goff played 17 games for DET and scored 305.1 PPR points, 17.9 a game, finishing QB9.

He completed 393 of 578 passes for 4564 yards, 34 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran 19 times for 45 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Jared Goff, Week 18 of 2025 against CHI: 27 of 42 passes for 331 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 16.2 PPR points.

Jared Goff, Week 17 of 2025 against MIN: 64 of 64 snaps, 18 of 29 passes for 197 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 3 carries for 2 yards, 4.1 PPR points.

Jared Goff, Week 16 of 2025 against PIT: 74 of 74 snaps, 34 of 54 passes for 364 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for -1 yards, 26.5 PPR points.

In 2025, Justin Herbert played 16 games for LAC and scored 299.9 PPR points, 18.7 a game, finishing QB10.

He completed 340 of 512 passes for 3727 yards, 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 498 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Justin Herbert, Week 17 of 2025 against HOU: 63 of 63 snaps, 21 of 32 passes for 236 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 6 carries for 37 yards, 16.1 PPR points.

Justin Herbert, Week 16 of 2025 against DAL: 64 of 64 snaps, 23 of 29 passes for 300 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 8 carries for 42 yards, 30.2 PPR points.

Justin Herbert, Week 15 of 2025 against KC: 66 of 66 snaps, 19 of 29 passes for 210 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 0 yards, 11.4 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Justin Herbert scored 14.3 PPR points and Jared Goff scored 16.4.

The call was wrong: Jared Goff outscored Justin Herbert by 2.2.

Justin Herbert finished 4.9 points above the 9.4 the props implied.

Justin Herbert, Week 1 against ARI: 55 of 55 snaps, 17 of 27 passes for 209 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 5 carries for 29 yards, 14.3 PPR points.

Justin Herbert finished as the week's QB22 in PPR scoring.

Jared Goff, Week 1 against NO: 77 of 77 snaps, 26 of 39 passes for 206 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 2 yards, 16.4 PPR points.

Jared Goff finished as the week's QB17 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Bo Nix over Jared Goff.
• Start Brock Purdy over Jared Goff.
• Start Caleb Williams over Jared Goff.
• Start Justin Herbert over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Justin Herbert over Bo Nix.
• Start Brock Purdy over Justin Herbert.