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Start Travis Kelce or Jake Ferguson? Week 1

Locks at kickoff, graded after.

Start Travis Kelce over Jake Ferguson

Right: 10.1 to 2.6
Start

Travis Kelce

TE · KC · vs DEN

DEN D vs TE
13.5
14th most to TEs (2026)
Snap share
71%
Week 1
Target share
20%
Week 1
Scored
10.1
PPR pts
Sit

Jake Ferguson

TE · DAL · at NYG

Books imply
1.9
fantasy pts
NYG D vs TE
8.2
9th fewest to TEs (2026)
Snap share
76%
Week 1
Target share
7%
Week 1
Scored
2.6
PPR pts

Our Week 1 call

Start Travis Kelce over Jake Ferguson in Week 1.

Jake Ferguson is priced by the books at 1.9 projected points and Travis Kelce is not priced at all, so we are leaning on where drafters take them. Drafters take Travis Kelce at ADP 127 and Jake Ferguson at 138.

What the books imply

No sportsbook posted a player market for Travis Kelce in Week 1.

Player prop markets imply 1.9 fantasy points for Jake Ferguson, with 33 percent of the markets a TE needs posted.

Week 1 matchups

Travis Kelce and KC host DEN.

DEN allowed 13.5 fantasy points to TEs in its one game this season, the 14th most in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 85 yards and no touchdowns against DEN.

Jake Ferguson and DAL visit NYG on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

NYG allowed 8.2 fantasy points to TEs in its one game this season, the 9th fewest in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 32 yards and no touchdowns against NYG.

By points allowed to the position, Travis Kelce has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Travis Kelce was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Jake Ferguson was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Travis Kelce played 17 games for KC and scored 193.2 PPR points, 11.4 a game, finishing TE3.

He caught 76 of 108 targets for 851 yards and 5 touchdowns, with 11 red zone targets and 428 air yards.

He was on the field for 81 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Travis Kelce, Week 18 of 2025 against LV: 6 targets and 3 catches for 12 yards, 4.2 PPR points.

Travis Kelce, Week 17 of 2025 against DEN: 42 of 43 snaps, 6 targets and 5 catches for 36 yards, 8.6 PPR points.

Travis Kelce, Week 16 of 2025 against TEN: 35 of 45 snaps, 4 targets and 1 catch for 6 yards, 1.6 PPR points.

In 2025, Jake Ferguson played 17 games for DAL and scored 188.1 PPR points, 11.1 a game, finishing TE5.

He caught 82 of 102 targets for 600 yards and 8 touchdowns, with 23 red zone targets and 293 air yards.

He was on the field for 67 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Jake Ferguson, Week 18 of 2025 against NYG: 2 targets and 1 catch for 5 yards, 1.5 PPR points.

Jake Ferguson, Week 17 of 2025 against WAS: 27 of 92 snaps, 2 targets and 1 catch for 6 yards, 1 touchdown, 7.6 PPR points.

Jake Ferguson, Week 16 of 2025 against LAC: 40 of 58 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 19 yards, 4.9 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Travis Kelce scored 10.1 PPR points and Jake Ferguson scored 2.6.

The call was right: Travis Kelce outscored Jake Ferguson by 7.5.

Travis Kelce, Week 1 against DEN: 49 of 69 snaps, 5 targets and 3 catches for 71 yards, 10.1 PPR points.

Travis Kelce finished as the week's TE16 in PPR scoring.

Jake Ferguson finished 0.7 points above the 1.9 the props implied.

Jake Ferguson, Week 1 against NYG: 44 of 58 snaps, 2 targets and 2 catches for 6 yards, 2.6 PPR points.

Jake Ferguson finished as the week's TE44 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

On the draft board

Ranked ahead

TE8 · KC · bye 5

2025 vs rec yds line 7-10

Overall rank
112
Draft pick
no consensus
Tier
3

Ranked behind

TE13 · DAL · bye 14

2025 vs rec yds line 6-11

Overall rank
142
Draft pick
no consensus
Tier
4

The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

The gap between them

  • Spots apart on the board30
  • Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
  • Tierstier 3 and tier 4
  • Board size244 draftable players

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