Start Jaxson Dart or Patrick Mahomes? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Jaxson Dart over Patrick Mahomes in Week 1.

De-vigged player props project Jaxson Dart at 11.8 points and Patrick Mahomes at 1.4, a gap of 10.4. Drafters take Jaxson Dart at ADP 121 and Patrick Mahomes at 112. Market coverage on Jaxson Dart is 65 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 1.4 fantasy points for Patrick Mahomes, with 40 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

Player prop markets imply 11.8 fantasy points for Jaxson Dart, with 65 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

That puts Jaxson Dart 10.4 points ahead of Patrick Mahomes on the books.

Week 1 matchups

Patrick Mahomes and KC host DEN on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

DEN allowed 22.7 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 9th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 184 yards and 2 touchdowns against DEN, with an interception.

Jaxson Dart and NYG host DAL on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

DAL allowed 26.6 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 4th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 230 yards and 3 touchdowns against DAL, with no interceptions.

By points allowed to the position, Jaxson Dart has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Patrick Mahomes was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Jaxson Dart was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Patrick Mahomes played 14 games for KC and scored 296.7 PPR points, 21.2 a game, finishing QB11.

He completed 315 of 502 passes for 3587 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 64 times for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 15 of 2025 against LAC: 56 of 61 snaps, 16 of 28 passes for 189 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 15 yards, 14.1 PPR points.

In 2025, Jaxson Dart played 14 games for NYG and scored 246.6 PPR points, 17.6 a game, finishing QB14.

He completed 216 of 339 passes for 2272 yards, 15 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and ran 86 times for 487 yards and 9 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 76 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Jaxson Dart, Week 18 of 2025 against DAL: 22 of 32 passes for 230 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 5 carries for 32 yards, 20.4 PPR points.

Jaxson Dart, Week 17 of 2025 against LV: 64 of 64 snaps, 22 of 30 passes for 207 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 9 carries for 48 yards, 25.1 PPR points.

Jaxson Dart, Week 16 of 2025 against MIN: 56 of 56 snaps, 7 of 13 passes for 33 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 7 yards, 1.0 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Jaxson Dart scored 26.6 PPR points and Patrick Mahomes scored 22.7.

The call was right: Jaxson Dart outscored Patrick Mahomes by 3.9.

Jaxson Dart finished 14.8 points above the 11.8 the props implied.

Jaxson Dart, Week 1 against DAL: 69 of 69 snaps, 23 of 29 passes for 230 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 11 carries for 54 yards, 26.6 PPR points.

Jaxson Dart finished as the week's QB4 in PPR scoring.

Patrick Mahomes finished 21.3 points above the 1.4 the props implied.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 1 against DEN: 69 of 69 snaps, 15 of 27 passes for 184 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 7 carries for 23 yards, 22.7 PPR points.

Patrick Mahomes finished as the week's QB9 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Patrick Mahomes over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Bo Nix over Patrick Mahomes.
• Start Caleb Williams over Patrick Mahomes.
• Start Jaxson Dart over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Jaxson Dart over Bo Nix.
• Start Jaxson Dart over Jordan Love.