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Start Trevor Lawrence or Justin Herbert? Week 2

Locks at kickoff, graded after.

Start Trevor Lawrence over Justin Herbert

Start

Trevor Lawrence

QB · JAX · at DEN

Books imply
17.8
fantasy pts
DEN D vs QB
22.7
9th most to QBs (2026)
Snap share
88%
Through Week 1
Sit

Justin Herbert

QB · LAC · vs LV

Books imply
16.6
fantasy pts
LV D vs QB
17.7
13th most to QBs (2026)
Snap share
100%
Through Week 1

Our Week 2 call

Start Trevor Lawrence over Justin Herbert in Week 2.

De-vigged player props project Trevor Lawrence at 17.8 points and Justin Herbert at 16.6, a gap of 1.2. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have. Drafters take Trevor Lawrence at ADP 94 and Justin Herbert at 109.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 17.8 fantasy points for Trevor Lawrence, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

Player prop markets imply 16.6 fantasy points for Justin Herbert, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

That puts Trevor Lawrence 1.2 points ahead of Justin Herbert on the books.

Week 2 matchups

Trevor Lawrence and JAX visit DEN on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

DEN allowed 22.7 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 9th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 184 yards and 2 touchdowns against DEN, with an interception.

Justin Herbert and LAC host LV on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

LV allowed 17.7 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 220 yards and no touchdowns against LV, with an interception.

By points allowed to the position, Trevor Lawrence has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Trevor Lawrence is not on the injury report.

Justin Herbert is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 2

Through Week 1, Trevor Lawrence played 88 percent of JAX snaps, dropped back 24 times and threw an average of 10.5 air yards per attempt.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 1 against CLE: 50 of 57 snaps, 18 of 23 passes for 245 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 3 yards.

Through Week 1, Justin Herbert played 100 percent of LAC snaps, dropped back 35 times and threw an average of 10.1 air yards per attempt.

Justin Herbert, Week 1 against ARI: 55 of 55 snaps, 17 of 27 passes for 209 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 5 carries for 29 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Trevor Lawrence played 17 games for JAX and scored 350.2 PPR points, 20.6 a game, finishing QB4.

He completed 341 of 560 passes for 4007 yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and ran 82 times for 359 yards and 9 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 18 of 2025 against TEN: 22 of 30 passes for 255 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 11 yards, 23.3 PPR points.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 17 of 2025 against IND: 69 of 69 snaps, 23 of 37 passes for 263 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 8 carries for 26 yards, 24.1 PPR points.

In 2025, Justin Herbert played 16 games for LAC and scored 299.9 PPR points, 18.7 a game, finishing QB10.

He completed 340 of 512 passes for 3727 yards, 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 498 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Justin Herbert, Week 17 of 2025 against HOU: 63 of 63 snaps, 21 of 32 passes for 236 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 6 carries for 37 yards, 16.1 PPR points.

Justin Herbert, Week 16 of 2025 against DAL: 64 of 64 snaps, 23 of 29 passes for 300 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 8 carries for 42 yards, 30.2 PPR points.

Their other Week 2 calls

On the draft board

Ranked ahead

QB15 · JAX · bye 7

2025 vs pass yds line 8-9

Overall rank
37
Draft pick
no consensus
Tier
1

Ranked behind

QB26 · LAC · bye 7

2025 vs pass yds line 6-10

Overall rank
74
Draft pick
no consensus
Tier
4

The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 2, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

The gap between them

  • Spots apart on the board37
  • Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
  • Tierstier 1 and tier 4
  • Board size244 draftable players

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