Start Kyler Murray or Sam Darnold? Week 1
Locked at kickoff. Graded after.
Start Kyler Murray over Sam Darnold
Right: 0.6 to 0.5
- GB D vs QB
- 19.8
- 12th most to QBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 17%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 0.6
- PPR pts
- Books implied
- 15.9
- pre-game
- NE D vs QB
- 13.3
- 10th fewest to QBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 10%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 0.5
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Kyler Murray over Sam Darnold in Week 1.
Sam Darnold is priced by the books at 15.9 projected points and Kyler Murray is not priced at all, so we are leaning on where drafters take them. Drafters take Kyler Murray at ADP 136 and Sam Darnold at 155.
What the books imply
No sportsbook posted a player market for Kyler Murray in Week 1.
Player prop markets imply 15.9 fantasy points for Sam Darnold, with 70 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.
Week 1 matchups
Kyler Murray and MIN host GB.
GB allowed 19.8 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 12th most in the league.
Quarterbacks threw for 151 yards and 3 touchdowns against GB, with an interception.
Sam Darnold and SEA host NE on Wednesday at 8:20 PM ET.
NE allowed 13.3 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 10th fewest in the league.
Quarterbacks threw for 200 yards and a touchdown against NE, with no interceptions.
By points allowed to the position, Kyler Murray has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Kyler Murray was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Sam Darnold was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Kyler Murray played 5 games for ARI and scored 80.8 PPR points, 16.2 a game, finishing QB38.
He completed 110 of 161 passes for 962 yards, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and ran 29 times for 173 yards and 1 touchdown.
He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
In 2025, Sam Darnold played 17 games for SEA and scored 249.4 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing QB13.
He completed 323 of 477 passes for 4048 yards, 25 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, and ran 35 times for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns.
He was on the field for 96 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Sam Darnold, Week 18 of 2025 against SF: 69 of 69 snaps, 20 of 26 passes for 198 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 6 carries for 9 yards, 8.8 PPR points.
Sam Darnold, Week 17 of 2025 against CAR: 66 of 66 snaps, 18 of 27 passes for 147 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 3 carries for 2 yards, 7.1 PPR points.
Sam Darnold, Week 16 of 2025 against LAR: 68 of 68 snaps, 22 of 34 passes for 270 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 3 carries for 7 yards, 21.5 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
Kyler Murray scored 0.6 PPR points and Sam Darnold scored 0.5.
The call was right: Kyler Murray outscored Sam Darnold by 0.1.
Kyler Murray, Week 1 against GB: 11 of 65 snaps, 3 of 5 passes for 18 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 9 yards, 0.6 PPR points.
Kyler Murray finished as the week's QB35 in PPR scoring.
Sam Darnold finished 15.4 points below the 15.9 the props implied.
Sam Darnold, Week 1 against NE: 5 of 50 snaps, 1 of 2 passes for 13 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 0.5 PPR points.
Sam Darnold finished as the week's QB36 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
QB28 · MIN · bye 6
2025 vs pass yds line 0-5
- Overall rank
- 187
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 5
Ranked behind
QB30 · SEA · bye 11
2025 vs pass yds line 9-8
- Overall rank
- 193
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 5
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. This call locked at kickoff and was not edited after. It is on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board6
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tiersboth in tier 5
- Board size242 draftable players
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