Josh Downs or Tyler Allgeier: who should I start in Week 6?

The market-based projections

Josh Downs's market-based projection is 10.6 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 10 market sources. That is the 74th highest figure of the 156 players with a market-based projection.

Tyler Allgeier's market-based projection is 7.1 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 12 market sources. That is the 101st highest figure of the 156 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Drafters have formed no consensus on Josh Downs: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 59th overall on the rest of his evidence.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Tyler Allgeier: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 60th overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season through Week 5

Through Week 5, Josh Downs has been on the field for 80 percent of IND snaps, drawn 20 percent of the targets and had 9 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 12 of the offence's 41 third down targets, had 0 of its 16 chances inside the five and seen 2 of its 16 two minute targets.

His 34 targets have averaged 11.1 air yards.

In Week 3 against HOU he caught 5 of 11 targets for 77 yards and did not score.

In Week 4 against WAS he caught 3 of 4 targets for 16 yards and did not score.

In Week 5 against PIT he caught 3 of 6 targets for 47 yards and did not score.

Through Week 5, Tyler Allgeier has been on the field for 50 percent of ARI snaps, taken 29 percent of the carries, drawn 6 percent of the targets and had 15 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 4 of the offence's 52 third down targets, had 2 of its 17 chances inside the five and seen 2 of its 37 two minute targets.

His 12 targets have come 2.3 yards behind the line of scrimmage on average.

In Week 3 against SF he carried 2 times for -1 yards, caught 4 of 4 targets for 10 yards and did not score.

In Week 4 against NYG he carried 8 times for 42 yards, caught 2 of 2 targets for 7 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 5 against DET he carried 3 times for 7 yards, caught 2 of 2 targets for 9 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Josh Downs played 16 games and scored 136.4 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR44.

He caught 58 of 88 targets for 566 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 14 red zone targets.

That came to 5-6 targets a game, a 66 percent catch rate and 9.8 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 58 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Tyler Allgeier played 17 games and scored 123.0 PPR points, 7.2 a game, finishing RB39.

He carried 143 times for 514 yards and 8 touchdowns, and caught 14 of 16 targets for 96 more yards.

That came to 8.4 carries a game at 3.6 yards a carry and 0.8 catches a game.

He was on the field for 30 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Tyler Allgeier was available for 1 game more.

Side by side

In 2025 Josh Downs scored 8.5 PPR points a game and Tyler Allgeier 7.2, 1.3 a game between them.

Josh Downs finished WR44 and Tyler Allgeier RB39, which are two different ladders.

Josh Downs is a wide receiver and Tyler Allgeier a running back, so the question is which slot you fill first rather than which of them is better.

Byes and availability

Josh Downs is off in Week 13. No bye is listed for Tyler Allgeier.

What would change the answer

3.5 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the sample rather than the market-based projection when it does.