Start Geno Smith or Matthew Stafford? Week 3

Our Week 3 call

Start Geno Smith over Matthew Stafford in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project Geno Smith at 16.3 points and Matthew Stafford at 16.0, a gap of 0.3. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 16.3 fantasy points for Geno Smith, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Geno Smith at 224.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 11.5 rushing yards, with a 11% chance to score a touchdown (15, 17, 3 and 15 books).

Player prop markets imply 16.0 fantasy points for Matthew Stafford, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Matthew Stafford at 243.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 0.5 rushing yards, with a 4% chance to score a touchdown (14, 16, 8 and 15 books).

That puts Geno Smith 0.3 points ahead of Matthew Stafford on the books.

Injury status

Geno Smith is not on the injury report.

Matthew Stafford is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 2, Geno Smith played 100 percent of NYJ snaps, dropped back 74 times and threw an average of 6.6 air yards per attempt.

Geno Smith, Week 1 against TEN: 67 of 67 snaps, 19 of 24 passes for 215 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 10 yards.

Geno Smith, Week 2 against GB: 74 of 74 snaps, 27 of 40 passes for 247 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 5 carries for 17 yards.

Through Week 2, Matthew Stafford played 92 percent of LAR snaps, dropped back 57 times and threw an average of 10.2 air yards per attempt.

Matthew Stafford, Week 1 against SF: 51 of 61 snaps, 15 of 25 passes for 155 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 0 yards.

Matthew Stafford, Week 2 against NYG: 62 of 62 snaps, 22 of 30 passes for 327 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 2 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Geno Smith played 15 games for LV and scored 190.9 PPR points, 12.7 a game, finishing QB23.

He completed 302 of 448 passes for 3025 yards, 19 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, and ran 41 times for 109 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Geno Smith, Week 17 of 2025 against NYG: 53 of 59 snaps, 20 of 28 passes for 176 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 1 carry for 1 yards, 9.1 PPR points.

In 2025, Matthew Stafford played 17 games for LAR and scored 358.4 PPR points, 21.1 a game, finishing QB3.

He completed 388 of 597 passes for 4707 yards, 46 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran 29 times for 1 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Matthew Stafford, Week 18 of 2025 against ARI: 25 of 40 passes for 259 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 3 yards, 26.7 PPR points.

Their other Week 3 calls

• Start Geno Smith over Aaron Rodgers.
• Start Baker Mayfield over Geno Smith.
• Start Bo Nix over Geno Smith.
• Start Aaron Rodgers over Matthew Stafford.
• Start Baker Mayfield over Matthew Stafford.
• Start Bo Nix over Matthew Stafford.