Geno Smith or Matthew Stafford: who should I start in Week 3?

What the sportsbooks price

The player markets price Geno Smith at 15.5 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 17 books. That is the 39th highest figure of the 176 players the books price.

The player markets price Matthew Stafford at 15.2 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 16 books. That is the 44th highest figure of the 176 players the books price.

Where the draft room stands

Drafters have formed no consensus on Geno Smith: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 121st overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 122.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Matthew Stafford: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 126th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 17.

This season through Week 2

Through Week 2, Geno Smith has been on the field for 100 percent of NYJ snaps, dropped back 74 times and thrown 6.6 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 9 of 74 dropbacks and scrambled 6 times.

In Week 1 against TEN he completed 19 of 24 passes for 215 yards, threw 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 3 times for 10 yards.

In Week 2 against GB he completed 27 of 40 passes for 247 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions and ran 5 times for 17 yards.

Through Week 2, Matthew Stafford has been on the field for 92 percent of LAR snaps, dropped back 57 times and thrown 10.2 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 9 of 57 dropbacks and scrambled 1 time.

In Week 1 against SF he completed 15 of 25 passes for 155 yards, threw 0 touchdowns and 1 interception and ran 1 time for 0 yards.

In Week 2 against NYG he completed 22 of 30 passes for 327 yards, threw 4 touchdowns and 1 interception and ran 1 time for 2 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Geno Smith played 15 games and scored 190.9 PPR points, 12.7 a game, finishing QB23.

He threw for 3025 yards on 448 attempts with 19 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, and ran for 109 yards and 0 touchdowns.

That came to 29.9 attempts a game at 6.8 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Matthew Stafford played 17 games and scored 358.4 PPR points, 21.1 a game, finishing QB3.

He threw for 4707 yards on 597 attempts with 46 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran for 1 yards and 0 touchdowns.

That came to 35.1 attempts a game at 7.9 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Matthew Stafford was available for 2 games more.

Head to head

In 2025 Matthew Stafford scored 21.1 PPR points a game and Geno Smith 12.7, 8.4 a game between them.

Geno Smith finished QB23 that year and Matthew Stafford QB3.

Matthew Stafford had 149 more pass attempts than Geno Smith, 597 to 448.

Matthew Stafford had 1682 more passing yards than Geno Smith, 4707 to 3025.

This season Geno Smith holds the bigger snap share, 100 percent against 92 percent.

Their target share this season is the same, 0 percent each.

Byes and availability

Geno Smith is off in Week 13 and Matthew Stafford in Week 11, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

0.3 points a game is the entire case. The books restate it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the price, and this page will follow the sample rather than the books when it does.